Statistically Hogs Have Wrong Person Taking Most Shots

There are three Razorbacks who have to become more offensively engaged or this thing isn't happening

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Mar 3, 2023 1:05 PM EST

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – It may sound odd to say the best path to success may be asking your top NBA prospect to shoot less, but the numbers indicate that might be the case for Eric Musselman's Razorbacks.

Things have gotten way out of balance in regard to shooting the last two games for Arkansas.

That's why, when looking at the shot distribution on paper, it would have been surprising had the Razorbacks not lost.

In those two games, highly touted freshman guard Nick Smith took 36 shots. That's so off balance, that Ricky Council has to go all the way back to a mid-February game with Florida to catch him in total number of shots.

Davonte Davis and Anthony Black have to go all the way back to the loss at Texas A&M five games ago to catch Smith in shots over the past two games and Black barely catches him then with 37.

But not only is the number of shots taken way out of balance, but out of the top four volume shooters, things are dramatically out of whack from the perspective of wanting your best shooter taking the most shots.

Against Tennessee, Smith shot 23%. He was a much better against Alabama at 39% and was 33% against Florida.

That's a three-game average of 32%. It's not great, but it's also not terrible.

Factor in an unusually hot game against Georgia and Smith's shooting over the last four games is a respectable 40%. During that span he took 62 shots.

For a lot of teams, it could be justified to have a guy averaging 40% over the last four games taking most of the shots. But Arkansas isn't a lot of teams.

Smith is the worst shooter of the four volume shooters and it's not even close.

Of the other three, Davis is the worst by a solid margin at 50%. The ball has a 1-in-10 better chance of going in if he's pulling the trigger.

As for Council and Black, they have each shot 55% over the past four games. That's 15 percent better, and if you exclude the one game where Smith got hot, it's 23% more likely the shot falls.

It's hard to look at those numbers and justify the offense going through a player who is shooting that much worse than the other three options.

To add perspective over the last two games, Smith shot 36 times as compared to 16 by Council and 16 by Black.

Combined, the Hogs two best options didn't have as many shots as Smith.

Yet, statistically, had either Council or Black flipped shot volume with Smith, the Razorbacks would have gotten at least 16 more points from their most prolific shooter assuming none of those shots were threes.

Instead of 9-for-23 against Alabama, that would have turned into 13-of-23. That level of production would have been more than enough to come away with the win.

Now, it is true that those are percentages in a vacuum. Council, Black and Davis may not have shot their average had the weight of shooting the Hogs into that game fallen on them.

However, they would have to have fallen way off their mark before it becomes no longer possible to win.

But whose fault is it that this has played out this way?

It would be easy to look at the numbers and just lay everything at the feet of Smith, but that's simply not the case.

There are two major factors involved here.

The first is Smith hasn't played nearly enough games to, as the coaches say, beat the AAU out of him. It took a while for Black to learn how to play a team-oriented college game Musselman wants to see from his players.

After another five or so games, Smith would learn how to fit into the flow of a team after slowly breaking the habits learned in a previous life.

However, perhaps the most at fault are the players around him. These were guys who used to work the ball around, create solid movement with cuts and angles, and see to it the guy who got open took the highest percentage shot.

That's a big part of the reason why the other three shoot such a higher percentage than Smith. The only possible exception might be Davis, who is simply a bit more of a pure shooter than Smith at the moment.

Yet, once Smith hits the floor, they seem to forget everything they learned and have proven can work. They pass up potential shots or forego ball movement that would generate space to give the ball to Smith even when it's not the best option and watch him have at it.

It's almost like they force him to be his old AAU self. It's as if instead of seeing Smith as an equal part of the wheel, they view him as the actual wheel. '

Not only is it not the case, but it goes against what typically makes the Razorbacks' offense work most effectively.

Time is running out for this team to figure it out. If Black, Davis and Council don't realize their full value to the team and learn to bring Smith in alongside them instead of standing back while he runs out in front of them, it's going to be a short postseason.

However, if it ever gets more in balance and those three get more offensively engaged, it could be another big run for the Razorbacks and Smith can join Black and Council in the draft as much more valuable players.