Even if Arkansas Loses Next Two Games, It Likely Sets Up Winning Formula

Razorbacks have strong path to momentum if fate drops them to No. 10 seed in SEC Tourney

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Feb 27, 2023 12:44 AM EST
Original:
Feb 27, 2023

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – Earlier today I wrote about how the odds were surprisingly high that Arkansas might find itself playing on Day 1 of the SEC Tournament in Nashville next week.

If you haven't read that story yet, take a minute to look it over and come back so everything I am about to say will actually make sense.

ODDS SURPRISINGLY HIGH THAT ARKANSAS PLAYS
ON FIRST DAY OF SEC TOURNAMENT

Now that you're up on how the scenarios play out, let's move along to something that might be even more surprising than that.

No matter how the next two days play out for the Razorbacks, it's incredibly difficult for them to lose in the long run.

If Arkansas gets a win over Tennessee or Kentucky, what happens in the SEC Tournament really won't matter because the selection committee will have already penciled them in. At that point, it will be all about seed, and it would take something dramatic in the tournament to change that.

But what about a worst case scenario where the Razorbacks lose both games and things play out in such a way where Arkansas falls to the No. 10 seed and has to play on Day 1.

Well, that works out pretty great for the Hogs also. That puts them in a Wednesday night game against Ole Miss. A late game against Ole Miss on a Wednesday night to get win No. 20 is much better than a noon game against Mississippi State that requires waking up early to go play in front of a smaller, less enthusiastic crowd.

After the Razorbacks get a tune-up game in this scenario to work out what's left of the kinks, they get a rematch against a struggling Auburn team on a neutral floor with what should be a loud Arkansas contingent in the stands.

If Arkansas can pull that off, a 21-win Razorback team that is starting to find its groove gets to take on a Kentucky team it already knows how to beat. Kentucky on a neutral floor in this scenario is probably a 50-50 shot at worst.

It's way more likely that Arkansas gets into the NCAA Tournament with 22 wins and momentum as the SEC's No. 10 seed than if the Razorbacks stay at No. 8 or No. 9 where they have been floating for the past several weeks.

The worst-case scenario for Arkansas would be to go 0-2 this week, but still end up playing in that 8-9 game on Thursday. That will most likely be a game against a Mississippi State team that is riding a wave of momentum and looking to prove itself to the selection committee.

If Arkansas loses that game, suddenly the selection committee has a very serious discussion on its hands as the Razorbacks get bandied about in that "Last Four In" debate.

Even if Arkansas were to win a tough fight with Mississippi State, Alabama would be waiting to kill any momentum the Razorbacks might have pieced together. Musselman would need to try to get Arkansas through a difficult first round NCAA match-up having lost 4-of-5 with only one scrapfest from which to build.

Twenty wins and struggling isn't nearly as appealing as 22 wins and on a hot streak.

The only way Arkansas probably doesn't get in is to get blown out by Tennessee and Kentucky and then lay an egg against Mississippi State. Losing close games to the Volunteers and Wildcats don't help, but they don't hurt.

Either way, there is opportunity to be had, so if things don't go the Razorbacks' way these next two games, there's a potential bright light ahead.

And for once, it's not an oncoming train.

Most likely.