Do Razorbacks Have Manageable Path to Sweet 16 or More in NCAA?

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Arkansas Razorbacks earned a No. 3 seed and Coach John Calipari will be high stepping his way to Portland for a first round date against Hawaii Thursday.

Fresh off an SEC Tournament Championship, Arkansas will be shipped out West once again to battle a manageable quadrant in Portland, Oregon to potentially reach the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. The Razorbacks will face a Warriors squad in its first NCAA Tournament since 2016.

Arkansas Razorbacks hold the trophy after the men's SEC Conference Tournament Championship against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Bridgestone Arena. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Hawaii is led by a trio of double-digit scorers in skilled 7-footer Isaac Johnson (14.1 points), physical 6-foot-6 guard Quandre Bullock (13.5 points) and Australia native Harry Rouhliadeff (10.8 points).

The Warriors played two high-major opponents this season in Oregon (lost 60-59) and Arizona State (lost 83-76). Those metrics along with a modest overall record of 24-8 ranks Hawaii with a team efficiency rating that ranks No. 108 nationally according to KenPom’s metrics.

What really stands out is the Warriors’ 101.2 rating on the defensive end, which ranks No. 43 in the country. That metric is unique as the Razorbacks played just one mid-major in non-conference play with a defensive efficiency inside the top-100 following the regular season.

Hawaii won't be an easy out Thursday as every significant contributor stands at least 6-foot-3. Defensively, the Warriors can force turnovers (12.2 per game, No. 130 nationally) while forcing nearly seven steals per game (No. 182 nationally).

Veteran coach Eron Ganot has recruited exceptional length for rim protection (4.1 blocks per game) while grabbing 11 offensive rebounds per game. For an Arkansas team that can be vulnerable with above average post play, the Warriors could find ways to exploit the Razorbacks' defense early on.

Going into the tournament, Hawaii's team understands how to get to the line and have shot 802 free throws this season which ranks No. 32 nationally. If they can figure out a way to stack fouls against Arkansas' big men Nick Pringle and Malique Ewin things could get a bit hairy in Portland.

Ganot's defensive approach will seem similar to the one implemented by Chris Beard at Ole Miss where he will use drop coverage to pack the lane to keep opponents from driving and instead take out of rhythm shots.

His defensive philosophy has thrived this season as the Warriors allow teams to connect on only 50.9% of shots from the field. However, when looking at Hawaii's defensive shot selection they allow opponents to shoot 41% from the field which ranks in the top-40 in college basketball.

The only area of the floor that Hawaii struggles to defend in the halfcourt is the left elbow where opponents make just 40.8% of attempts. In every three-point quadrant, the Warriors aren't allowing better than 29% from beyond the arc.

With Arkansas aggressively attacking driving lanes and making 50% of its field goal attempts (No. 13 nationally) this will certainly be an interesting battle within the game to watch.

Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. elebrates — Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (5) celebrates a three-pointer during the first half of the SEC tournament championship game against Vanderbilt at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, March 15, 2026. | ANDREW NELLES / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What will set the Razorbacks apart from Hawaii is the sheer quickness and athleticism advantage Arkansas will have at every single position on the court. The Warriors are a good story with the program's first tournament appearance in a decade.

However, Hawaii struggles to score the basketball on a consistent enough basis which could keep them from playing spoiler in Darius Acuff's NCAA Tournament debut.

Arkansas averages north of 91 points per game this season and has surpassed the 100-point plateau on seven occasions including four against non-conference opponents James Madison, Jackson State, Southern and Queens.

The Razorbacks have played six games at neutral site venues this season, including Sunday's SEC Tournament Championship Game in Nashville against Vanderbilt. Arkansas has made at least six three-pointers in each game, 57-of-133 (42.8%) which means shooting likely won't be a problem for the Hogs in Portland.

Second Round Prospects?

There are no easy games in the NCAA Tournament and it'll be no different if Arkansas can find a way to advance to the second round. The Razorbacks will play either No. 5 seed Wisconsin or No. 12 seed High Point, a high-scoring mid-major out of the Big South Conference.

The Panthers average over 90 points per game, which ranks No. 4 nationally and touts seven different players who shoot better than 30% from beyond the arc.

High Point hasn't lost a game since Jan. 14, a 14-game winning streak and are beating opponents by almost 15 points per game. Flynn Clayman's squad finished the season with a KenPom ranking of No. 92 with an offensive rating of 117.0 (No. 66 nationally).

Wisconsin props itself up on the offensive side with its 33 three-point attempts per game that ranks No. 7 nationally. The Badgers like to spread the court but play with a more methodical pace with 1.163 points per possession (No. 27 nationally).

On paper, Arkansas holds the analytical, statistical and athleticism edge against the three other teams in its NCAA Tournament quadrant. If the Razorbacks can get out of the first weekend, Calipari can become the first coach in program history to reach the Sweet 16 in his first two seasons at the helm.

Calipari is also the only coach in Arkansas history to make the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons.

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Second Round Prospects?

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