Is Razorbacks' Calipari fading in chase for nation's top player?

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. -- John Calipari is no stranger to being in the hunt if not in the lead for the nation's No. 1 recruit in any given recruiting cycle.

The second-year Arkansas coach has won his share of those battles spanning several decades with uber-successful stops at UMass, Memphis, and Kentucky where he tapped into made-for-NBA talent to amass one national championship and six Final Fours.

His latest pursuit has been focused on the top-rated recruit in 2026, Tyran Stokes (6-7 guard / wing, Notre Dame high school in Sherman Oaks, Calif., native of Louisville, Ky.). Actually, he's the best of best regardless of any classification according to ESPN.

The multiple-year Calipari courtship of Stokes seemed to have placed the Hoop Hogs squarely in the mix for the jack-of-all-trades stud.

That is, until recently.

A national college basketball recruiting analyst on Wednesday informed us that Calipari and Arkansas appear to be "out on Stokes," and that assessment aligns with our own current thinking after receiving a vibe-and-status update from the Arkansas perspective of things.

Not that Arkansas is completely or absolutely dead in the Stokes sweepstakes, but the current status might be best described as being on life-support.

An NIL package approaching $4 million has been rumored — whether that's an asking price or a best offer already on the table is unclear — which might be Exhibit A as to why Calipari and Arkansas would pump the brakes in Stokes' recruitment.

Arkansas is not bereft of NIL spending power, but we've been told numerous times Calipari has a process and philosophy of setting prospect valuation limits that may have some built-in wiggle room to expand modestly but are not inclined to engage in high-stakes bidding wars.

It's a choice aimed at building a talented two-deep, 8-to-9 player roster annually as opposed to laser-focusing the lion's share of NIL toward one or two players then-backfilling the playable roster with bargain-bin talent.

SEC foe and storied blueblood Kentucky is the betting favorite to eventually secure a commitment from Stokes, at least that's the opinion from most recruiting analysts that have recently weighed in from behind the scenes.

Razorbacks coach John Calipari at practice at the Eddie Sutton Practice Center in Fayetteville, Ark. | Andy Hodges-Hogs on SI Images

The Wildcats reportedly will funnel a larger percentage of their revenue share toward basketball recruit spending relative to what other SEC programs plan to do, plus Kentucky under second-year Mark Pope reportedly has been one of the biggest spenders in the ever-changing NIL landscape.

Stokes back in May expressed interest in visiting Arkansas, and the Razorbacks coaching staff with Calipari front-and-center were courtside for all of Stokes' live-eval session games for 17U Oakland Soldiers on the prestigious Nike EYBL circuit spanning May through July.

At least for now, a Stokes visit to Arkansas may be on the backburner. He's already visited Kentucky, Kansas, and Louisville and is considering visits to Oregon, Gonzaga, and USC.

If Stokes ever formally announces a top list of schools in the mix for his services, it will not surprise us if Arkansas is included on such a list. But unless a visit is scheduled, which again seems to be dicey at best at this time, consider the Arkansas-Stokes recruitment to be barely registering a pulse.

Stokes on Monday was named MVP of the SLAM Summer Classic all-star game that was played at famous Rucker Park in Harlem NYC. He teamed up with Arkansas' lone 2026 commitment (so far), 5-star in-state prize JaShawn "JJ" Andrews (6-6 wing, Little Rock Christian Academy, ESPN national No. 12 / 5-star prospect).

Just last month, Stokes and Andrews squared off mano a mano during Nike Peach Jam pool play with Andrews posting a double-double (24 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal) in a win over Stokes (20 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks).

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