Razorbacks Slip in Lunardi’s Latest Bracket Update After Loss

Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology sees Hogs punished for Kentucky, still get favorable city for March.

Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr (5) drives against Kentucky Wildcats guard Collin Chandler (5) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Arkansas is still dancing in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. The Razorbacks just aren’t moonwalking right now.

In ESPN’s newest projection, Arkansas lands on the six-seed line, down one spot from its previous five-seed position after suffering the first loss of the year in Bud Walton at the hands of Kentucky. It’s a small slide, not a shove.

Still, it’s enough to get noticed, especially this time of year when every line move feels personal.

The Hogs enter this stretch with a 16-6 overall record and a 6-3 mark in SEC play. There are nine regular season games left before the postseason begins, which means there’s still time to move back up the bracket.

There’s also time to slip further, which is how February likes to work.

Lunardi updates his bracket every Tuesday and Friday, and this season he added a trend graphic. It’s a simple idea that still stings.

Arkansas is currently trending down. Not crashing. Not spiraling. Just pointing the arrow slightly south.

That’s what happens when you split a week.

Split week brings seed line shuffle

Last week summed up Arkansas basketball in a tidy little bow.

The Razorbacks went 1-1, winning on the road at Oklahoma, 83-79, before dropping their first home game of the season against Kentucky, 85-77.

Road wins matter in March math, especially when they can count as Quad 1 wins. Home losses don’t help.

Put them together and you get exactly what Lunardi delivered with a gentle nudge from the five line to the six.

Still, the destination matters as much as the number. Maybe more.

In Lunardi’s latest projection, Arkansas is headed to Oklahoma City for the first and second rounds. Fans of the NBA's Thunder know how well Razorbacks perform in Oklahoma's capital.

That’s about a four-hour drive from Fayetteville, close enough for fans to load up a car, grab gas station snacks, and make it feel like a home game by Saturday.

For March, that’s a gift.

Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari reacts after a call during the second half Kentucky Wildcats at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Oklahoma City field feels familiar

The projected group in Oklahoma City includes Miami, Nebraska, Portland State, Texas A&M, St. Mary's, Houston and Navy.

It’s a mix of power leagues, mid-majors, and teams that come with storylines baked in.

The Hogs are projected to open against Miami in the Round of 64. Win that, and the next opponent would be the winner of Nebraska vs. Portland State.

Nebraska sits on the three-seed line, which means history would immediately enter the chat. The Cornhuskers, which are viewed as college basketball's version of the Indiana football team, have reached the NCAA Tournament eight times and have never won a game.

That streak has followed them for decades.

One of those losses came against Arkansas in 1998, when the two met in Boise. The Razorbacks won 74-65, a game that still lives quietly in tournament trivia.

For a rematch to happen this year, Nebraska would need to clear that hurdle first.

That’s never been easy. The pressure alone weighs more than most brackets.

Familiar faces, familiar programs

There’s more familiarity lurking deeper in the bracket.

Arkansas shares the SEC with Texas A&M, the current leader that is surprisingly beginning to run away with things in the conference standings.

The two will have already seen each other at least once by the time March rolls around, with a Feb. 25 home game at Bud Walton Arena on the schedule.

The Hogs have also already played Houston, a projected two-seed, during the non-conference portion of the season.

That game might be a lot different in a tournament setting where it's a win-or-go-home situation.

March loves a sequel. Sometimes it loves three of them.

Miami isn’t the same team Arkansas saw last season.

The Razorbacks played the Hurricanes in the SEC/ACC Challenge a year ago and picked up a road win. That Miami team finished 7-24, and the season ended with Jim Larranaga stepping down mid-season.

This year looks different.

Jai Lucas took over the program and has Miami pushing for an NCAA Tournament bid in the ACC. It’s a quick turnaround, and it adds intrigue to a potential first-round match-up.

Lucas also brings his own Arkansas connections. During his playing career from 2007-11, he suited up for Texas and Florida and went 2-1 against the Razorbacks.

March has a long memory like that.

Plenty of basketball left to change the math

Bracket projections feel firm until they aren’t. That’s the trick.

Arkansas has nine regular season games left, plus the SEC Tournament, to reshape how this all looks.

Right now, the Hogs sit safely in the field. A six seed is comfortable.

It’s also fragile. Two good weeks can push that number down. A rough stretch can move it the other direction just as fast.

For now, Arkansas gets the benefit of geography and opportunity. Oklahoma City offers a friendly drive and a manageable opening game, at least on paper.

Paper, of course, has never played defense. Before any bracket dreams turn real, Arkansas has a road test waiting.

The Razorbacks are coming off a mid-week bye and will travel to Starkville this weekend to face Mississippi State. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. CT, with the game airing on ESPN or ESPN2.

It’s another chance to move the arrow. Up or down. February doesn’t care which.