Five Keys That Could Make or Break Auburn Baseball's Regional Run

The Auburn Tigers will look to break a four-year drought of missing the College World Series during this postseason. To do so, head coach Butch Thompson will want to see these five things that the Tigers have done well in wins all season.

Auburn head coach Butch Thompson has hopes of making his third College World Series as the program's leader. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Omaha is on the mind of Auburn baseball, as the Tigers get set to begin their NCAA Tournament journey at home in the opening round. 

The Auburn Regional is back for the second consecutive season, and Plainsman Park will be the home for UCF, NC State and Milwaukee to look to take down the Tigers this weekend. Head coach Butch Thompson and the team will look to come out victorious ahead of a potential super regional, which would allow them to stay at home next weekend as well. 

For that to happen, these will be the five biggest keys for Auburn. 

Starting Arms Go Deep in Games

Auburn’s success in the SEC Tournament came from only using six pitchers in three games. If that ends up being the case at home next weekend, it should be smooth sailing for the Tigers to continue their season. 

Starters Jake Marciano, Andreas Alvarez and Alex Petrovic went a combined 15 innings and only allowed seven hits, setting the stage for three defensive battles that had two go the Tigers’ way. That’s been the case all season if Auburn wins games: its pitchers don’t allow hits and plated runs. 

That trio is expected to start again, and all three have seemed to catch their stride as of late. Each of them has thrown for at least four innings in all but one start during the month of, which came from Marciano against Mississippi State on May 7. That will once again be the key: to see if the starters can replicate the success of what happened in Hoover, Alabama, last week. 

Five Runs is the Magic Number

There’s a correlation between runs allowed and Auburn wins, and that number is five. 

In every win for the Tigers in SEC play, they didn’t allow more than five runs. In wins across every game Auburn had this season, there was only one instance, Louisville, where the team won while allowing more runs than that. 

Thompson’s identity is pitching, one that Auburn is third in the country in ERA and second in WHIP. If the Tigers play to that identity, especially against two of the teams in NC State and UCF that rank in the top 70 in batting average in the country, the rest of their play will carry them into a super regional at Plainsman Park. 

However, there’s another stat that goes hand-in-hand with this one, and it’s actually led to some losses. 

Avoid Run-Scoring Droughts

Look at the Auburn losses. 14 of its 19 losses have come from game with only scoring three runs or fewer. 

If the bats are hot for one of their opponents the Tigers face this weekend, it could put them in a little bit of trouble. 

Their 6.8 runs per game are outside the top 100 among programs in the country, with 12 games scoring two runs or fewer. Granted, three of those ended up being wins, but leaving teams in games until the final inning leaves the door open for a shining moment in the postseason for any of these three ball clubs. 

That happened against Arkansas in the SEC Tournament. While playing stellar defense and strong pitching, the Razorbacks plated two runs while Auburn could only use a home run as its only run of the game. That must change in the NCAA Tournament. 

Thompson isn’t facing the consistent SEC pitching that is dominant this weekend, but every run plated will inflate Auburn’s chances of coming out of the region, unlike other teams. 

Win Saturday’s Game in the Winner’s Bracket

Auburn begins its regional with Milwaukee on Friday afternoon. However, with the way the Panthers pitch, with almost an ERA of seven, it should be expected that the Tigers get out of that with a win. 

It will be the game on Saturday against the winner of UCF and NC State that matters the most in terms of momentum. 

Lose that game, and the Tigers will play from behind for the remainder of their regional. It takes away that cushion that other regional hosts have struggled with in years past. Not only would you have to play twice on Sunday, but a potential game on Monday as well would have to occur if Auburn runs the table. 

Avoid the uphill battle, win on Saturday against either the Knights or Wolfpack, and you’re set up for success on Sunday with only one game to worry about. Pressure only builds if the Tigers lose, especially at home. 

Embrace the Home Crowd

Plainsman Park has been kind to Auburn over the last two seasons, which helped the Tigers in last year’s regional with three straight home wins to make it to the super regionals. Being 49-18 at home in the last two seasons is always a plus for Thompson’s group. 

Against non-conference teams this season, Auburn is 14-3 when remaining at home, an optimistic record, while the other three programs are looking to change that. Even in Hoover last weekend, “Here we go, Auburn” chants echoed throughout the three-day trip the Tigers took in the SEC Tournament. They will look to lean on that once again this weekend with more of their fans in the stadium. 

Auburn supporters are hungry for a College World Series appearance after three seasons without it since. The road will go through Plainsman Park, and after a super regional lost at home last year, the Tiger fans will be loud and proud for the rest of the way. 

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