5 Things to Know about Auburn's NIT Semifinal Matchup

The Auburn Tigers are heading to Indianapolis for the Final Four, though not in the way that some expected after last season. Steven Pearl’s team advanced to the semifinals of the NIT with a win over 2-Seed Nevada in Neville Arena on Wednesday, 75-69.

Auburn will face the Illinois State Redbirds, who finished third in the Missouri Valley Conference and boast a 23-12 record on the season. The Redbirds were the 4-Seed in their region of the NIT, taking down Kent State, 1-Seed Wake Forest, and 2-Seed Dayton on their way to Indy. Here are five things you need to know as Auburn gets ready to take on the NIT’s Cinderella.

The Redbirds are Red-Hot

Since being bounced in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament by Northern Iowa, Illinois State has been playing some of its best basketball of the season. The Redbirds dominated Kent State 79-58 in round one.

The second round saw a furious comeback against host squad Wake Forest, as ISU erased a nine-point deficit with 9:21 to play in enemy territory to secure a 78-75 win. Junior guard Johnny Kinziger drilled a three with 1.7 seconds remaining to take the lead and send the Redbirds to the quarterfinals.

JOHNNY BALL GAME!!🔥 pic.twitter.com/YQonXmwblI
— Barstool Birds (@BarstoolILLSt) March 22, 2026

Illinois State spent the vast majority of its quarterfinals matchup against Dayton in the lead, controlling the game behind 16 points from Kinziger, 13 from leading scorer Chase Walker, and 12 off the bench from junior guard Ty Pence. The win made the Redbirds the only team to advance to the NIT semifinals this season that was not a 1-Seed and host, thanks to wins by Auburn, New Mexico, and Tulsa.

Guards, Guards, Guards

Unlike some mid-majors and legendary NCAA Tournament squads such as 2024 Oakland or 2022 St. Peter’s, the Redbirds are not a one or two-man operation. However, the overwhelming majority of scoring comes from the Redbirds’ rotation of guards. Kinziger, Pence, and Wolf have all been solid contributors through the first three games.

Each player has scored in double-digits at least once, and Wolf and Pence have both eclipsed the 20-point mark. Kinziger and Pence both have multiple double-digit scoring performances, and Kinziger has been the player to take the big shot for this team all season. The trio all shoot over 30% from beyond the arc as well, with Wolf leading the way at 39.5% from deep.

Seven of the top eight leading scorers for the Redbirds are guards, with leading scorer and junior Chase Walker being the lone exception. 53 of Illinois State’s 75.1 points per game come via their guards, meaning Auburn will have to be disciplined with its perimeter defense and stay home on defensive assignments, which has not been a strength for the Tigers this season.

Make Possessions Count

Illinois State plays at a fairly slow pace, just No. 261 of 365 Division I teams in possessions per game. In a contest where the pace is slower, every empty possession and mistake is magnified. 1-Seed Florida found that out the hard way in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament against Iowa, the team with the fewest possessions per game in the country. The Gators had too many careless turnovers and mishaps, and the game bled through their fingertips as a result.

The Tigers have been a fairly high-scoring team this season and will look to play at their own pace, but if the game slows down, they will need to be careful not to capitulate. Auburn will need to combat that slower pace by making as few mistakes as possible, something that the Tigers struggled with down the stretch in the regular season. Auburn’s second-round game against Seattle also saw a shaky finish, with the Redhawks halving the Tigers’ lead down the stretch.

This Auburn team’s Achilles heel has been letting bad possessions compound themselves, especially on defense. Once one mistake is made, this team tends to start playing messier and out of system, making what was one bad possession into a stretch of five or six possessions and putting games out of reach. In a game that could have a slower pace, Auburn can not afford to make the same error.

Take Advantage of Offense

The largest edge on paper for Auburn in this matchup is adjusted offensive efficiency, where the Tigers have the Redbirds beaten by a landslide. Auburn enters the game No. 13 in the country in the metric via Kenpom, scoring 125 points per 100 possessions. Illinois State is a full 134 places lower at No. 147, scoring just 110.6 points per 100 possessions.

Though bad defense has often bitten the Tigers, the offense has been fairly reliable all season, thanks to the scoring of Tahaad Pettiford, Kevin Overton, and Keyshawn Hall. Auburn will need that trio to put pressure on Illinois State to keep up on the scoreboard, a position that the Redbirds are not as comfortable playing from.

The Tigers have shot fairly well so far in the NIT, particularly in games two and three. Auburn shot 50% from the floor against Seattle and 49% vs Nevada, both games in which the Tigers looked comfortable enough with home court advantage. That performance will need to continue for Auburn to press its biggest advantage over the Redbirds.

No More Neville

Though Auburn’s first three wins in the NIT have seemed to signal a turnaround, all three games were on the Tigers’ home court in Neville Arena. The semifinal game will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with the final to be played in Gainbridge Fieldhouse. While a neutral site is different from an away game, travelling away from Neville has been catastrophic for Auburn in recent months.

Since the Tigers beat the Florida Gators in Gainesville on Jan. 24, Auburn has only won one game outside of Neville Arena, its first SEC Tournament game in Nashville against Mississippi State. The Tigers played seven games away from The Plains during that span and could only manage a 1-6 record.

Auburn was 3-3 in neutral-site games during the regular season, though two of those wins were against Chattanooga and an uncharacteristically awful Oregon team. However, the other was against a St. John’s team that is still dancing, which at least shows that this team is able to win in a high-pressure neutral environment.

The Tigers’ matchup with the Redbirds is set for Thursday, April 2, though an official tip-off time is yet to be announced. Regardless of the outcome, it has been extremely encouraging to see this team find some more fight in the NIT after what felt like a complete derailment to end the regular season and SEC Tournament.

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