1,000 Simulations See Auburn Earn Favorable Outcome Against Georgia

Here's what the advanced analytics have to say about the Auburn Tigers' chances with the No. 1 Bulldogs this weekend.

Oct 11, 2025; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) is tackled by Auburn Tigers linebacker Elijah Melendez (9) and safety Anquon Fegans (21) during the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Auburn Tigers certainly have a difficult matchup coming up this weekend against the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs, who are hot off a hard-fought win against Alabama. The Tigers, conversely, are coming off a bye week that followed a tough loss to Tennessee and are heavy underdogs against the Dawgs. 

Every week, SportsLine runs 1,000 simulations of each major college football game, in hopes of predicting the outcomes of each game. Here’s what it had to say about Auburn’s matchup with Georgia, per CBS Sports’ Ross Kelly.

“Auburn (+19.5, 49.5) covers the huge line at Georgia nearly 60% of the time,” he wrote. “Coming off a win over Alabama, and with Georgia possibly looking forward to its bye in Week 8, this matchup has trap game written all over it. When UGA beat Bama last year, the Dawgs then outright lost their next game, and Georgia is just 11-17 ATS (39%) after a win since the start of 2024.”

Covering the spread would be a great start for the Tigers, but the goal, of course, is to win, a feat made significantly more difficult amidst the loss of star linebacker Xavier Atkins, who was suspended from the team earlier this week for an undisclosed reason.

Though Auburn could be a trap game of sorts for the Bulldogs, Kirby Smart is 60-5 at home with Georgia, an impressive feat that perfectly encapsulates the dominance the Bulldogs have had under Smart, as well as why it will be so difficult for the Tigers to take down the Bulldogs on their home turf.

“Auburn is well rested off a bye, and it's three-headed rushing attack of Byrum Brown, Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II is forecasted to reach 125 yards,” Kelly continued. “That slows the game down and prevents Georgia from running up the score, with the model also calling for the Under to connect in well over 50% of simulations.”

The Tigers have struggled immensely to get their rushing attack going this season, especially with their running backs, but perhaps the bye week provided the boost they needed to establish the run against the Dawgs. Tiger fans would certainly welcome any form of a big game from Mabson or Cobb, who both currently rank behind Brown in total rushing yards.

The simulations seem to suggest that this game will be closer and a lot lower-scoring than many believe it to be, and the Tigers would certainly favor that outcome, as there is little to no reason to believe that Golesh’s group would win in a shootout. 

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