Is Alabama showing signs of vulnerability… legitimately?

In 2022, Alabama’s scoring defense allowed 9.0 points per game at home. They allowed 28.8 points in road or neutral site games. That’s a difference of 19.8 points, the largest difference of the Nick Saban era at Alabama. The second closest year was 2013, in which the Tide gave up 5.1 PPG at home at 24.2 on the road/at neutral sites (19.1 difference).

Alabama’s scoring margin in road games was +8.5. Here’s a look at the trend of Alabama’s road scoring margin during Saban’s tenure (via TeamRankings.com):

The differential took a dip in 2014 under seven, came back up for a few seasons, and has been on the decline since 2020.

But the Tide's margin took a dip it hadn't seen in eight years last season. Why did they visibly struggle so much on the road?

It wasn’t for a lack of talent. The Crimson Tide have brought in a top five class every single season under Saban (excluding 2007), with the lowest rated class coming in 2018 (No. 5 nationally). They’ve had the best class in the country nine times.

Is it worth noting that the class in 2018 would have been seniors this past season? No, considering only three of the 2022 players from that class were on roster last year (Emil Ekiyor, Cameron Latu, Jaylen Moody).

It is the staff changes? Possibly. The Crimson Tide have managed to stay consistent within their success under Saban regardless of who’s coordinating what behind the scenes. There’s a change Pete Golding and Bill O’Brien weren’t the most perfect hires Bama could have made. But considering Saban and Alabama’s winning track record despite staff turnover year after year, it doesn’t feel likely.

A shift in culture within the locker room is possible - Alabama players themselves said following the loss to Tennessee that the team had “anxiety” and wasn’t playing up to standard. They must have had anxiety on the road at LSU, too… or at Texas… or at Ole Miss.

It doesn’t feel like a shift in mentality is something Saban is going to allow to happen to his roster across the board. It could be argued that the raw talent the team has balances any sort of locker room issues out more often than not.

With NIL coming into play, however, there’s a chance that already inflated egos within a team are starting to become more combative towards each other. That’s not something that just Alabama could experience, though.

I’m going to make a few assumptions here about the Crimson Tide and their current direction in the SEC.

I don’t think it’s about what Alabama is doing. They aren’t sliding.

Other teams are catching up.

Georgia is the best and most obvious example here - the Bulldogs have rounded into elite form and are now the peak of what college football has to offer - from a recruiting, facilities, and on-field product standpoint. They’ve got it all, and they’re poised to continue their dominance.

Look past Georgia to the rest of the league - Tennessee is reemerging. Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss are a tough out and the portal will continue to fuel that. LSU looks promising under Brian Kelly. Arkansas is finally out of the basement. Auburn is currently trying to be more Auburn after briefly being less Auburn. Texas A&M is… doing something.

It’s bad timing for Nick Saban & Co.

Throw Oklahoma and Texas into the mix, and there’s a chance things could get worse for the Tide here over the next two seasons.

Especially they don’t find a quarterback. Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson weren’t enough for Bama, so Saban brought in Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner because they felt like they “needed to add some competition in the room.” After an odd spring game from Milroe and Simpson and the addition of a transfer QB that threw more interceptions than touchdowns as a backup quarterback at Notre Dame, the national perspective on Alabama’s quarterback room is… not great.

Of course, Milroe or Simpson could emerge as a Heisman finalist for all we know. There’s no telling what an offseason and fall camp will do for the unit.

But if Alabama believes that Buchner could be their “Stetson Bennett,” as JD Pickell of On3 claims he was told?

A guy who threw a combined five interceptions against South Carolina and Marshall?

It’s not good optics. And it doesn’t scream excitement for the future.

My prediction? Bama will be mostly fine for the next couple of seasons - the roster is chock full of talent that almost nobody in the country can compare to. But if they can’t get the most important position under control, it will put a ceiling on how far they can go past the regular season.

Road games against Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn this season will be telling. The Tide are lucky they don’t have to go down to Baton Rouge or up to Knoxville again this year.

2024 and 2025 will be seasons to pay attention to. The Saban era is winding down, and it’s unclear right now whether he will be able to finish his legacy strongly.

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