Auburn A Favorite By Shocking Amount Against Florida

Analytics are in Auburn's favor to win at home to begin SEC play under Alex Golesh.

Auburn Tigers head coach Alex Golesh looks at the video board during the second quarter against the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The kick was good. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The undefeated Auburn Tigers head into their Week 3 matchup with the Florida Gators, but even before the season, many believed the Tigers’ matchup would be one of the year's most evenly matched games of the year.

Many expect this game to be a battle of wills rather than a talent mismatch, and ESPN’s official matchup predictor seems to agree.

The Tigers have just a 50.2% chance to win against the Gators on Saturday, according to ESPN’s metric, leaving the Gators with a 49.8% chance to win–it quite literally cannot get much closer than that.

So, what makes these teams, and this matchup, so special? Let’s break it down.

For starters, both teams are under first-year head coaches who previously had impressive tenures with Group of Six programs, with Jon Sumrall representing Florida and Alex Golesh at the helm of the Auburn Tigers. 

Adding a wrinkle to this aspect of the matchup is the fact that, at some point in the offseason, both schools thought they’d be getting either of the coaches, which is to say that Florida fans once believed they’d land Golesh, while Tiger fans once believed they’d land Sumrall. This adds an extra layer of competition between the two coaches, who are both clearly interested in proving themselves to their respective programs.

Both teams also rely heavily on the rushing attack, though the Gators have had quite a bit more success in that regard this season off the back of Jaden Baugh, one of the best running backs in the SEC. Auburn may have the Gators beat on depth, though, as Jeremiah Cobb, Omar Mabson, Bryson Washington and a host of others could all step up for the Tigers at a moment’s notice.

Both teams, ironically, also have quite strong rushing defenses, with the Tigers allowing, on average, 76.5 rushing yards per game, while the Gators have allowed 91 rushing yards per game. The difference here, though, is the fact that the Tigers have already matched up with a Power Four program, while the Gators have faced two Group of Six opponents. 

As such, the Tigers, who already have home-field advantage, will likely be more conditioned to the extra physicality of SEC play, while the Gators could need a quarter or two to acclimate. If the Tigers can jump out to a quick lead and limit Baugh on the ground, victory would be a much more reasonable task. 

Enjoy our content? Make AuburnOnSI a preferred source to see more stories from us on Google by clicking here.