Is Auburn’s Season-Opener Against Baylor the Most Important Game of the Season?

The Auburn Tigers' biggest game of the Alex Golesh era in his first season could be his first ever game as head coach.

Auburn took down Baylor in their first meeting in Waco to open the 2025 campaign with a win. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

This time last year, I said that the Auburn Tigers’ season-opener against Baylor would be the most important game of Hugh Freeze’s career, largely because his seat was so hot at that point that a season-opening loss could create dangerous negative momentum that could cost him his job down the road. 

Though Freeze won that game in dominant fashion, he seemed to find that momentum elsewhere and lost his position anyway. Even though that particular game seemed to have no impact on the rest of the season for the Tigers, many fans have already begun to express their belief that this season’s Baylor matchup, this time in Atlanta, will, once again, be the most important showing of the season for Golesh.

So, is it? I think the answer is yes, but only if the Tigers lose.

The concept is simple: if Auburn wins this game in dominant fashion, fans will likely be on the exact same high as they were last year, and, well, the season could still collapse at any point, just like last year. That likely will not stop the Auburn faithful from putting Brown atop their Heisman conversations and putting the Tigers in their week one CFP projections, regardless of what success their team is actually expected to have.

If Auburn squeaks out a win against Dave Aranda and DJ Lagway, questions will begin to circulate as to what kind of success a Golesh-led team will actually be expected to have. After all, he and most of his offense came over from the AAC last year, so any win against any major team would be viewed as a win, though there would be a lot of nervousness towards the SEC schedule. In this scenario, the Tigers’ week three matchup with Florida, their first SEC matchup of the year, would be the ‘most important game’ in the eyes of the Auburn faithful.

However, if Auburn loses to Baylor in week one, things will already be getting dicey on the Plains for Golesh. This is not to say he would necessarily be on the hot seat; it is supposed to be a rebuild year, after all. That said, Golesh’s honeymoon phase would firmly be over, and the scrutiny would begin as to what exactly he is doing in his effort to rebuild the Tigers.

In this scenario, the Tigers’ most important game would be, quite simply, whoever they are playing next. A bad week one loss is a tough look for a program, but teams like the Tigers’ rival school across the state have had awful week one losses (see: Alabama vs. Florida State, 2025) and still made something out of their seasons.

Renowned analyst Paul Finebaum concurs with many of these ideas.

“Beat Baylor. That was a game that Hugh Freeze won last year, it didn’t do him any good,” he said. “But don’t try losing that game with Florida coming to town in two weeks and then going to see Tennessee and Georgia back-to-back on the road.”

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