ESPN FPI predicts Auburn football's 2022 season record

ESPN FPI's matchup predictor has officially been turned loose on every college football game for the 2022 season.

It's go time.

The Auburn Tigers (ranked No. 11 in the ESPN FPI) have an interesting schedule laid out ahead of them. The FPI has some even more interesting predictions for Auburn's slate, as well as their overall record.

Take a look at what ESPN FPI says about every regular season game for the Tigers.

Vs Mercer (Sept. 3)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 99.9%

Series History: Auburn leads 12-0

Record: 1-0

Notes:

The Tigers will likely be starting a new quarterback vs the Bears. Auburn's offense should physically be able to wear down Mercer en route to an easy victory. Keep an eye out, though. The last time these two teams faced off, the Tigers committed five turnovers.

Vs San Jose State (Sept. 10)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 96.3%

Series History: Auburn leads 2-0

Record: 2-0

Notes:

After winning the Mountain West in 2020, the Spartans took a step back finishing with a 5-7 record. An anemic 2021 offense (20.0 points per game) doesn't show a ton of promise for 2022 after losing QB Nick Starkel to graduation.

Vs Penn State (Sept. 17)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 62.6%

Series History: Penn State leads 2-1

Record: 3-0

Notes:

After having a near perfect game against the Tigers last season, Sean Clifford returns for his fifth and final season with the Nittany Lions. There are several weapons in the receiving core that Clifford has at his disposal.

Pass rush and turnovers may be big storylines in this one.

Vs Missouri (Sept. 24)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 85.6%

Series History: Auburn leads 2-1

Record: 4-0

Notes:

On paper, this does not look like a good defensive matchup for Mizzou. After getting torched on the ground in SEC play (227.4 rushing yards allowed per game, 124th nationally) there's reason to believe that Auburn could win this one by double-digits.

Missouri's passing game combined with a strong offensive line could keep the CoMo Tigers in this one.

Vs LSU (Oct. 1)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 57.4%

Series History: LSU leads 31-24

Record: 5-0

Notes:

ESPN FPI says odds are Auburn starts off 5-0, with a slight nod over LSU in their final game of a five-game home stretch to begin the season.

New LSU head coach Brian Kelly is proven. How he fairs in year one will likely have a lot to do with improving secondary play and establishing an offensive identity. This feels like a very even matchup.

At Georgia (Oct. 8)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 11.3%

Series History: Georgia leads 62-58-8

Record: 5-1

Notes:

Here's where the wheels supposedly begin to fall off. Auburn hasn't won in Athens since 2005. It seems unlikely they pull it off against the reining national champs.

At Ole Miss (Oct. 15)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 45.4%

Series History: Auburn leads 35-10

Record: 5-2

Notes:

A slight edge to Ole Miss in this one according to the FPI. It should be noted that Auburn beat the Rebels last year without much effort in the second half. On top of that, all signs point to Ole Miss taking a step back. It doesn't appear as though Kiffin has what he wants in his quarterback room.

This is a 50/50 game that the Tigers have a solid chance to win. The FPI thinks the Rebs get it done.

Vs Arkansas (Oct. 29)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 69.9%

Series History: Auburn leads 19-11

Record: 6-2

Notes:

Auburn ran over the Hogs in Fayetteville last season. Still, this is a tough game to pencil as a win and move on. With the potent running attack that Arkansas has, it's hard to see the Razorbacks just lying over in this one.

Getting off the field on third down (Arkansas was 10-19 last season) will be important for the Tigers.

At Mississippi State (Nov. 5)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 47.7%

Series History: Auburn leads 65-28-2

Record: 6-3

Notes:

Yikes. ESPN apparently doesn't like what it saw out of last year's game, and to be honest it doesn't really feel like much has changed for either team since the Tigers blew a 28-3 lead to the Bulldogs. MSU has a ton of returning production, has decent coaching, and gets Auburn at home.

It's still fair to say that Auburn arguably has more talent on roster and will still compete for a win here.

Vs Texas A&M (Nov. 12)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 61.2%

Series History: Texas A&M leads 7-5

Record: 7-3

Notes:

It's interesting that the FPI thinks Auburn has a better chance against Texas A&M at home than they do against LSU.

Jimbo Fisher & Co. have way too much talent not to compete for the SEC West this season. Whoever gets the nod at QB will have a lot of weight on his shoulders to produce.

Allow me to point out that A&M didn't score an offensive touchdown against the Tigers last season. How will Jordan-Hare treat them in the first ever Zach Calzada bowl?

Vs Western Kentucky (Nov. 19)

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: 88.5%

Series History: Auburn leads 2-0

Record: 8-3

Notes:

Auburn plays both Missouri and Western Kentucky in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Missouri (an SEC school) is only 2.9% more likely to beat Auburn.

Despite losing QB Bailey Zappe (NCAA all-time single season passing yards and touchdowns record holder) to the NFL, there's still a decent amount of talent on the offensive side of the Ball. Former Bowling Green/West Virginia quarterback Jarret Doege steps in.

Without Zappe, their top three receivers from 2021, and their offensive coordinator, it doesn't feel like WKU should put up much of a fight against Auburn.

Unless the Tigers' secondary is awful.