How Auburn Tigers Defense Lead an Upset Against Vanderbilt

The Auburn Tigers head north on Saturday to Nashville, Tenn., to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy enters the game ranked No. 16 in the country and 7-2 on the season after a loss last Saturday to Texas in Austin. However, the Tigers might have what they need to pull the upset in Music City: a stout run defense.

Auburn enters Saturday’s contest with the No. 9 rush defense in the country, allowing just 83.6 rush yards per game. Defensive coordinator and now interim head coach DJ Durkin has his group playing at an extremely high level this season, and it might be just enough to cause an SEC shocker. Despite all their success this season, the Commodores often struggle when their run game is stifled.

Vanderbilt has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 187.2 rush yards per game. The mark puts the Commodores at No. 33 in the country, which might not seem like much until you examine the way Vandy wins games under head coach Clark Lea.

In the Commodore’s eight losses since the start of the 2024 season, Vandy hasn’t rushed for more than 146 yards in a game, which was in double overtime last season in a game at Missouri. In fact, the Commodores averaged just 112.6 rushing yards per game in those losses and were out-rushed in all but one of the games, last year’s home loss to Texas.

However, in their wins since the start of last season, Vandy is averaging 188.8 rushing yards per game across those 13 games. In that span, the Commodores have only been out-rushed three times in wins: last season at Kentucky, last season at Auburn, and this season vs Missouri, all games that they won by 10 points or less.

So, the formula for an upset is clear: stop the run. But, against a quarterback in Deigo Pavia who has given Auburn fits as a runner at both New Mexico State and Vanderbilt, how can the Tigers keep the Commodores’ run game under wraps?

It all starts, predictably, in the trenches. Auburn needs players such as Bobby Jamison-Travis and Malik Blocton to eat space against what has been a solid Vandy offensive line, allowing the Tigers to let their exceptional linebackers go to work.

LSU transfer Xavier Atkins has been playing at an All-American level this season and is currently No. 2 in the nation in solo tackles with 52. Atkins also has seven sacks on the season and an electric interception against Texas A&M.

Robert Woodyard Jr. is no slouch next to Atkins, either. The junior from Mobile, Ala. has 35 solo tackles of his own, two sacks, and a PFF run defense grade of 87.5 (No. 20 nationally) if you’re into that sort of thing.

Both Atkins and Woodyard Jr. will need to play disciplined football to combat Vanderbilt's fondness for eye candy, misdirection, and option plays. The key to slowing down the Commodores’ run game is to stay home, set firm edges, and play gap sound, something that the Auburn defense is more than capable of doing.

Though no matter how well the defense plays, the offense is sure to be an adventure as always. Vanderbilt is more vulnerable through the air, coming in at just No. 90 in passing defense. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Auburn isn’t set up well to exploit that with a passing attack that ranks a lowly No. 118 nationally.

However, if the Auburn defense can contain Vandy’s rushing attack, the Tigers are almost guaranteed to at least be in with a chance of an upset in Nashville on Saturday. And, though we’ve seen Auburn be close this season and unable to capitalize, maybe a fresh set of eyes as head coach would be enough to take the Tigers over the top.

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