What Advanced Analytics Are Saying About Auburn's Week 1 Contest Vs. Baylor

Other metrics are prediciting how the Auburn Tigers begin their 2026 season under Alex Golesh.

Auburn Tigers players break a huddle during Auburn football practice at Woltosz Football Performance Center. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Auburn Tigers are now just two days away from kicking off their inaugural matchup under new head coach Alex Golesh, as his squad is scheduled to open their season against Baylor this Saturday in Atlanta. Predcitions have been flying from analysts, fans and doubters alike, but both ESPN’s FPI and Bill Connelly’s SP+ score prediction favor the Tigers in this matchup.

The current line on the matchup is Auburn -7.5, though many, including Josh Pate, have predicted the Bears to cover that line, if not win. ESPN’s FPI and Connelly’s SP+ seem to concur with that statement, as both have given Auburn good, but not amazing, odds to win on Saturday.

ESPN’s FPI, or Football Power Index, currently rates the Tigers as having a 72.9% chance to walk out of Atlanta with a key first win, while Connelly’s SP+ score prediction sees Auburn with a 69% chance to win. Additionally, Connelly’s SP+ projects the Tigers to win by a margin of 7.7 points.

There are quite a few factors that could completely rewrite the script of this matchup, not the least of which is Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway was the top quarterback in his class when he committed to Florida, but over the past two seasons, he has struggled immensely with the Curse of Payton Thorne, also known as devastating interception issues.

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda claims that Lagway was being held back at Florida and is now improving at a strong rate, but everyone has an opinion until the game actually starts and the world sees what the player can do. Lagway definitely has the ability to take over a game when needed– it’s just a matter of whether or not that ability makes the trip to Atlanta.

Ironically, Auburn’s quarterback, Byrum Brown, is also a player who could easily take over a game, and not necessarily only when he needs to. Brown was the only player in football last season to rush for over 1,000 yards while also passing for over 3,000 yards, and he accounted for the second-most touchdowns in football last year, only behind Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. 

Either quarterback has a chance to take over this game, but most analysts, along with computerized predictions, seem to favor Brown and the Tigers on Saturday. 

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