What Would It Take For Auburn To Reach The College Football Playoff In 2024?
The Auburn Tigers won't be near any playoff conversations this offseason.
With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, the Tigers could find themselves near the conversation soon, however. Hugh Freeze is doing everything he can to improve Auburn's talent roster, and the momentum on the recruiting trail is giving fans hope.
Let's say Auburn somehow finds themselves in the CFP hunt in 2024. What would it take for the Tigers to make it?
Here are five things that will need to happen.
A much improved passing attack
Auburn ranked dead last in the SEC in passing yards per game in 2023 (162.2 YPG) and will look to dramatically improve that number in 2024.
Whether or not the young receiver talent takes off in Freeze's second season will likely be answered through his scheming, but the Tigers still have solid pieces around the likes of Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson. Finding a quarterback that can actually get them the ball will be the biggest question. Incumbent Payton Thorne was subpar in his first season on the Plains, leading Freeze to claim the QB competition is "wide open" heading into the spring.
Getting Thorne, newcomer Walker White, or someone else to lead the offense more effectively than a season ago will be paramount.
At least ten wins
Not slipping up in the non-conference schedule feels like it should go without saying. After the New Mexico State shocker last year, every non-con slate should be mentioned carefully mentioned moving forward.
Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico (no State), and ULM seems easy on paper - we'll count those as wins for now. As for the SEC schedule:
Arkansas
Oklahoma
At Georgia
At Missouri
At Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
At Alabama
There has to be at least six wins here for Auburn to make a case for the playoff. Remember, the 12-team College Football Playoff field will include the six highest-ranked conference champions, which will receive automatic bids. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye to the quarterfinals. The six highest-ranked teams remaining will round out the 12-team format.
If the CFP expanded this past season the six at-large bids would have been Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, and Ole Miss. All of those teams finished the regular season 10-2 or better.
Auburn has to go 10-2 at worst to have a shot at the playoff.
A competent rush defense
One of the ways Auburn can improve to 10-2 or better is by shoring up their defensive front. The Tigers gave up 61 more rushing yards per game in losses than they did in victories.
That is not going to cut it against Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama or Texas A&M. Auburn has to bottle things up better against, well, everyone - but especially against the toughest teams on their schedule. Speaking of that schedule...
A big time conference victory
No playoff resume is truly complete without a big win. Losing a game or two may not matter as long as a marquee victory is secured (sorry, Florida State).
It could be argued that Auburn's four biggest games are the ones previously mentioned - Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama. If the Tigers go 4-0 against Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt (easier said than done), they have to at least go 2-2 in this stretch. Any combination of victories may work here.
If Auburn goes 3-1 against the easier side of their conference slate it makes things much more difficult on their playoff chances. By the time Auburn plays Kentucky we should have an idea as to whether or not the Tigers are truly a contender. Getting through Oklahoma, Georgia and Missouri in consecutive games will be tough.
Freeze's young talent taking off
Remember those young receivers mentioned earlier? They're going to have to make some plays in big games. Highly touted defensive prospects like Amaris Williams, Demarcus Riddick and Jamonta Waller? They'll be given chances to prove their abilities. They're going to need to take off in order for the Tigers to win the games they need to if they want to make the playoff.
There is also a world where Walker White trots out as the Tigers' starting quarterback to open the season. If he wins the job, he has to ball out. Plain and simple.
