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Predicting Baylor Girls' March Madness Run

Madness is here!!! It's that time of the month when the most exciting things in basketball happen. Here is a prediction for how far the Lady Bears can go.
Mar 6, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard Ella Brow (3) looks for an open teammate against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images
Mar 6, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Baylor Bears guard Ella Brow (3) looks for an open teammate against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

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After an upsetting loss to Colorado in their first conference tournament game, the Lady Bears look to bounce back and have a good tournament outing after drawing a six seed. The path for Baylor looks difficult, with strong teams like UCLA, Minnesota, Duke, and LSU. Baylor has beaten good teams this year. If they can get on a consistent run, this team can make it past multiple rounds and find themselves playing in the sweet sixteen.

First Round: Bounce Back Game Against a Struggling Big Ten Opponent

Baylor starts their journey with a matchup against the 11-seed Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are led by Sophomore Guard Britt Price and Sophomore Forward Amiah Hargrove. Nebraska had a rough end of the season, losing seven of its last nine games of the year, and lost 11 conference games.

This team should be very manageable for Baylor—a good game to get their focus back after the disappointing end to the season. Even though the spread has the Cornhuskers favored by a point and a half, I see Baylor getting the job done with their offense. Even if the Bears have a bad shooting game, Baylor averages over seven more rebounds per game than Nebraska. My prediction Baylor wins 66-58.

Second Round: Bears Battle The Blue Bloods

The basketball powerhouse, known as the Duke Blue Devils, drew the three seed in the Sacramento two region with Baylor. They have a first-round match against College of Charleston, which I believe Duke will handle easily.

So this leaves us with a three-seed Duke matchup with a six-seed Baylor. This is a tough one for me to decide. I believe Baylor has the scoring to keep up with Duke, but Duke does play really solid defense, allowing just 59 points a game. Baylor has just one matchup with Duke, winning 58-52 in the season opener. Duke is coming off winning 21 of their last 23 games. It's hard to believe when this Blue Devils team will be stopped, but I still believe Baylor will have a decent chance. My prediction is a close loss; Duke wins the game by being able to get points in the late minutes and pull away. Score: 62-57.

What If Baylor Wins

So if Baylor prevails over the Blue Devils, who would they likely play? From my view, it will most likely be the two-seed LSU or the seven-seed Texas Tech. Most Likely LSU. This would be a team that I believe Baylor just wouldn't be able to keep up with, scoring over 92 points a game. Baylor would have to play a scrappy, defensive game and force LSU into multiple turnovers to keep the game close.

So, at best, I predict Baylor can beat Duke and head into the Sweet 16, but will most likely run into a highly dominant LSU team, which will most likely be too much for them to handle. Duke has been on a great run in the second half of the season, and LSU is a top-five favorite to win the championship. Baylor is seeded in a tough region, with some of the best teams in the nation. Can they bounce back and have a good tournament run? We will see starting today at 1 PM CT.

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Tyler Gillum
TYLER GILLUM

Tyler is a writer for Baylor Bears On SI with a deep focus on football and basketball. Professional stat cruncher and high school athlete. Passionate NFL, college, and NBA fan. I love sports and want to put that passion into my writing.

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