Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Packers vs. Bears on Saturday on Wild Card Weekend)

Iain MacMillan | 14 Hours Ago

The Bears and Packers' Wild Card matchup is set as a coin flip. / Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers are set to face each other in the playoffs for just the third time in NFL history, despite having the longest rivalry in professional football.

Not only is this a rivalry game with a berth in the divisional round on the line, but the odds for this game are set at a near coin flip, meaning anything can happen tonight. If you want to place a few bets on tonight's marquee matchup, you're in the right place. Let's take a look at my best bets that I have locked in.

Packers vs. Bears Best Bets Tonight

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Packers -1.5 (-105) vs. Bears
• Packers/Bears OVER 44.5 (-115)
• Jordan Love OVER 220.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Packers -1.5 (-105) vs. Bears

In my Road to Super Bowl 60 article, I wrote about why I'm backing the Packers on Saturday night.

Jordan Love will be back in the lineup for the Packers for this game, which is bad news for the Bears. Not only did Love lead the Packers to the win against the Bears in the first game, but Green Bay was well on its way to defeating the Bears again in the rematch before an injury took Love out of the game.

I've been on my soapbox all season long claiming that the Bears aren't as good as their record, so it'd be hypocritical if I were to bet on them this week. Let's be honest, their underlying metrics don't match their 11-4 record. They're 21st in net yards per play (-0.3), 16th in total DVOA, 11th in success rate, and 26th in opponent success rate.

The Packers outrank them in virtually every metric, including coming in at seventh in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.6. The Bears' main path to victory is to win the turnover battle, but if they're not able to do that, they're going to be in trouble in this game.

Packers/Bears OVER 44.5 (-115)

I'm surprised the total is in the mid-40s, considering the defenses are the weak point for both of these teams. If you date back to Week 10, they rank 19th and 25th in opponent EPA per play, as well as 24th and 25th in opponent success rate.

The strength of the Bears' defense is forcing turnovers, but if they're not able to do that, opponents have been able to move the ball down the field at will against them. When the comes to the Packers, their defense hasn't been the same since losing Micah Parsons, their star pass-rusher.

With all of that in mind, if you want to bet on the total, go with the OVER.

Jordan Love OVER 220.5 Passing Yards (-114)

There are some concerns about just how much the Packers will throw the ball in this game, especially with the expected weather, but if they do, a healthy Jordan Love has a chance to put up some big numbers. If you exclude plays where the Bears were able to get turnovers, their secondary ranks 30th in opponent dropback EPA and 28th in opponent dropback success rate. They've also allowed the fifth-most yards per pass attempt at 7.2. Don't be surprised if Love ends up being the MVP of the game.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!