Baylor Bears vs. Arizona State: Staff Predictions and Preview

The Baylor Bears hit the road for their first away Big 12 game of the season.

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Baylor is riding a three-game winning streak as the Bears have their first true road test of the season. Baylor will head to the state of Arizona to take on Arizona State in a nightcap on Saturday.

The Bears are 0-2 against ASU all-time. Baylor suffered a loss back in 1990, and then last season, the Bears suffered a 27-24 loss at the hands of Sam Leavitt and Arizona State. The Sun Devils walked out of Waco after a walk-off field goal to end the game.

The good news for Baylor is its defense. Under Joe Klanderman, Baylor has held all four opponents to under 20 points to start the season, which is the most games the Bears have done that since 2005.

Hopefully, that's a good sign, as Baylor is going up against one of the better offenses in the Big 12. Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley has averaged nearly 250 yards per game and he has thrown nine touchdowns and two interceptions.

Here is how our staff sees the game playing out.

Trent Knoop

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After suffering such an early injury, DJ Lagway hasn't fully shown what he's capable of. The Bears are hopeful that he's as close to 100% as possible. The key with Lagway is that he is a dual-threat quarterback, but he hasn't been able to showcase his rushing ability quite yet.

I do think Jake Spavital will attempt to implement more quarterback-designed runs this Saturday. But we will have to see how Lagway's ankle holds up. Baylor hasn't been able to get its run game rolling this season, and the Bears are missing the added Lagway element.

Baylor's defense has played really well this season, but Cutter Boley is going to be the best pure passer they've seen. Baylor will need to get constant pressure on Boley, if not, he can make you pay.

Final score: Arizona State 27, Baylor 24

Bennett Parker

Baylor had its best performance of the season away from McLane Stadium against Auburn, and I think the defense has another strong performance. However, I am not sold on the Baylor offense and DJ Lagway yet. The Bears have another slow start and have to play catch-up in front of an amped ASU crowd; the win streak ends

Final score: Arizona State 20, Baylor 17

Tyler Gillum

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Baylor faces a real test in an offensively strong starting Arizona State team. This could be one of those last drive deciding games where the team that gets the ball last wins. Lagway needs to open up the offense this game and extend plays with his legs, something we didn't see against Colorado. Cutter Boley is a dangerous weapon behind this newly rebuilt wide receiver room, and Baylor's defense needs to disrupt this passing offense in order to get a win. My prediction is a close game all the way until the end, and the Bears get it done with their last drive of the game.

Final score: Baylor 33 , Arizona State 27

Brad Teague

I see this game going one of two ways. The final outcome of Baylor winning? That's not in question as even in the "bad" outcome that I can foresee, the Bears come back home to Waco 4-1.
Best-case for the Bears in this game? The offense finally clicking, and the running game finally providing consistent production instead of it's current level of sporadic. The offensive line is going to dictate how this game goes, and if they can establish the running game early and effectively the Bears will control the game clock and win this contest handily.

Worst-case for the Bears in this game? Well, a loss would be the worst-case scenario here; however, I do not envision the Bears losing this game. Even if (and potentially when) the turnovers happen, the Bears' defense is fully prepared to pick up the slack. The defense isn't the flashiest or the most stat-grabbing, but watching them play each game this season and just snuffing out most every play has been a sight to behold. Whatever it is that Coach Klanderman is doing is working and working well.

All that being said, ASU is going to not just roll over and give up as they're the ones favored in this game, after all. Not to mention that the returning players from each team remember how last year's game came down to the final seconds. The ASU players will be looking to replicate the win, and the Bears will be looking to finally play a complete game of football this season and avenge the loss.

Estimated game progression: Baylor starts fast but fails 4th down conversion around midfield, Baylor Defense holds firm, ASU forced to punt, Baylor scores on ensuing drive, a back and forth of punts ultimately leads to halftime as Baylor is up 10-0 at the half. The Bears go three-and-out after halftime and even though Palmer Williams does his best to flip field position the Sun Devils score on the drive.

A long touchdown reception from either Freeman or Miller brings the score to 27-14. The Sun Devils score early in the fourth quarter on a pick-six to bring the score to 27-21. Baylor successfully drains a chunk of clock and has to settle for a field goal to increase the lead to 30-21. After a successful defensive stand and a few plays in victory formation, Baylor wins this game.
Best-Case Scenario: Baylor scores 52 - ASU 17
Worst-Case Scenario: Baylor 38 - ASU 35

Final score: Baylor 30, Arizona State 21

Grant Peterson

Baylor heads to Tempe, Arizona, for its first true road test of the season. The Bears had a sloppy game offensively against Colorado, but it was DJ Lagway’s first game back from his injury. I expect him to look more comfortable this Saturday and be more mobile, allowing him to use his legs when there are no options downfield.

Kansas held Arizona State quarterback Cutter Boley to just 95 passing yards in the Sun Devils’ 24-17 win over the Jayhawks. That is something the Bears’ defense should be able to take advantage of, especially with how well the unit has performed so far this season.

Although Arizona State is coming off a bye week, which gives the Sun Devils extra time to prepare for Baylor, I think the Bears’ defense gives them the edge in what should be a close game.

Final score: Baylor 24, Arizona State 21

Jason B. Hirschhorn

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Baylor has yet to play a complete game this season. In the opener, DJ Lagway's ankle sprain effectively scuttled much of offensive coordinator Jake Spavital's play sheet. Subsequent games saw the Bears operate with a backup or a still-limited Lagway under center. Now, four weeks removed from the original injury, the offense needs to start rounding into form.

Whether Week 5's tilt with Arizona State offers the best opportunity to demonstrate that progress is another matter. The late kickoff (9:30 p.m. CT) will already push the Bears out of their comfort zone. The Sun Devils also have some field-tilting players on offense who should create issues for Dave Aranda's defense, star wideout Reed Harris (16th nationally in receiving yards, eighth in touchdown receptions) chief among them.

On a different field at a different time, this matchup would look more balanced. At the venue formerly known as Sun Devil Stadium, in a contest that will conclude around midnight Waco time, the game tilts in Arizona State's favor.

Prediction: Arizona State over Baylor

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