Young, Up-and-Coming Coach Predicted to Replace Dave Aranda as Baylor's Head Coach

How much longer will Dave Aranda last in Waco?

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After another disappointing season in Waco, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda is squarely on the hot seat entering the 2026 season. Aranda hopes that the Bears will come back to life this season after bringing over Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman to lead the defense, along with landing former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway from Florida.

Time will tell how Aranda's crew does this season, but one analyst doesn't expect Aranda to be around much longer. Recently, The Athletic's Ralph Russo predicted each team's head coach in 2030 and Aranda was nowhere to be seen among the Power Four programs.

Instead of Aranda, Russo predicts that Texas State's head coach G.J. Kinne will become Baylor's head coach at some point in time in the near future.

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"Kinne hasn’t yet had the big breakthrough season at Texas State, but Baylor hiring a Texan with a reputation for building explosive offenses makes too much sense."

Kinne is a former Texas and Tulsa quarterback, where he became the Conference USA Player of the Year in 2010. From 2012-16, he bounced around in the pros before heading back to college to coach.

He has been an offensive coordinator/QB coach for teams like Hawaii and UCF, before becoming the head coach of Incarnate Word in 2022. He was hired by Texas State in 2023 and is still leading the program. So far, Kinne has totaled a 23-16 record through three seasons there, with two eight-win seasons.

Kinne, an offensive mind, would be a change from Aranda. While Jake Spavital is in Waco and running the offense, Aranda is a defensive coach, who was trying to run the defense — now Klanderman will.

The Bobcats have won all three bowl games under Kinne and they are known for their high-octane offense.

What does Aranda need to do to survive 2026?

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While Russo's exercise was more for fun — it's hard to predict a year from now, let alone 2030. It does pose the question about Aranda's job security. He had a tremendous 2021 season in Waco, winning 12 games, but since, Baylor has had three losing seasons.

This past year, Baylor was expected to contend for the Big 12 Conference, but we know how that went. The Bears' defense has been poor and the offense has been good, but mistakes really haunted Baylor in 2025.

The Bears don't have an easy schedule this season. If Aranda can win seven or eight games, that will likely buy him at least one more season in Waco. But another losing season? It's hard envision Aranda getting another year.