Arizona State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 4

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Arizona State-Baylor matchup in Week 4 of the college football season.

The Baylor Bears and quarterback Sawyer Robertson are 2-1 this season. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Baylor Bears are looking to move to 3-1 in the 2025 season when they host the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday night. 

A playoff team in the 2024 season, Arizona State is off to a 2-1 start, losing a matchup against the SEC’s Mississippi State in Week 2. Unfortunately, the Sun Devils don’t look as explosive on offense without Cam Skattebo, and Sam Leavitt struggled mightily in the loss to the Bulldogs.

Oddsmakers have Sawyer Robertson and a high-powered Baylor attack set as a home favorite in this matchup, but the spread is still inside a field goal.

Robertson leads the Big 12 in passing yards and already has thrown 10 scores in the 2025 season. Still, Baylor dropped its season opener to Auburn, which has kept it out of the top-25 to this point. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Week 4 matchup. 

Arizona State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Arizona State +2.5 (-110)
• Baylor -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Arizona State: +105
• Baylor: -125

Total

• 60.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Arizona State vs. Baylor How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 20
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: McLane Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Arizona State record: 2-1
• Baylor record: 2-1

Arizona State vs. Baylor Key Player to Watch

Sawyer Robertson, Quarterback, Baylor

This season, Robertson has led a high-powered passing attack that is averaging 368 passing yards per game.

Robertson leads the Big 12 in completions, attempts and passing yards while throwing 10 touchdowns. On top of that, he led Baylor to a 48-point showing against a ranked SMU team earlier this season.

Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State and Blake Shapen, allowing 279 yards and three passing scores. I expect Robertson to take advantage of this secondary on Saturday night.   

Arizona State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

After losing to Auburn in Week 1, Baylor has bounced back with a win over a ranked SMU team and a blowout victory over Samford in Week 3.

Now, the Bears are at home against an Arizona State team that lost its only real test of the 2025 season against Mississippi State.

Baylor has generated over 500 yards of total offense per game this season, and quarterback Sawyer Robinson has been one of the best passers in the Big 12.

The Sun Devils have dealt with some interceptions issues for Sam Leavitt (three this season), and he threw for just 82 yards in the Mississippi State.

This is a huge step up in class for the Sun Devils compared to their wins over Northern Arizona and Texas State, and I expect Baylor to roll at home where it is 17-12 straight up since the 2021 season.  

Pick: Baylor Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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