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Dave Aranda's Hot Seat: What Does Baylor's Coach Aranda Need to Prove in Week 1?

The scales could tip heavily in one direction or the other after the road trip to Atlanta.
Jul 7, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA;  Baylor head coach Dave Aranda speaks to reporters
Jul 7, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Baylor head coach Dave Aranda speaks to reporters | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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With little success since Baylor's Big 12 championship in 2021, many fans have been calling for Coach Aranda's dismissal over the last couple of seasons. There will certainly be a microscope on everything he does in 2026.

Aranda was named on CBS' coaches' to-watch list along with two others last week.

"Dave Aranda just managed to hold onto his job despite a 5-7 finish. With a new athletic director at the helm, however, another 5-7 record isn't expected to get him to 2027," analyst John Talty said.

Many fans were shocked that Aranda's Baylor tenure didn't come to an end after last season, but his contract extends until 2029. That is a big buyout; Baylor doesn't want to pay unless they have to.

Improvement is the measuring stick, not wins

Dave Aranda against Aubur
Aug 29, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda reacts on the sidelines against the Auburn Tigers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A lot of the pressure on Aranda amounts to Week 1 against Auburn, where Aranda will have to prove that his team has improved over the offseason. His team hasn't taken a healthy step forward in a number of years; a vengeful win against the Tigers could right a lot of wrongs for the Bears and Aranda.

"Aranda will have to improve," Talty said. "And that starts in Week 1 against first-year coach Alex Golesh's Auburn Tigers. Baylor lost to Auburn in its season opener a year ago and could really benefit from getting off to a hot start."

CBS had both the Week 1 game against Auburn and the Week 5 game against TCU circled as crucial games for Aranda, also noting the turbulent three-week stretch to end the season.

"As much cushion as Aranda can give himself before those games, the better shot he has at keeping his job," Talty said.

Dave Arand
Oct 18, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes and Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Wins are important for a head coach, but Aranda's priority has to be improving the team as a whole. If transfer DJ Lagway turns out to be a dud, Aranda can't be blamed much. His job is to prove to fans and the athletic director that he is adding value to the Bears by how he recruits and how he coaches.

Baylor isn't a Big 12 favorite this season; if they are going to get back to that level, it will take another couple of years of patience and steady improvement. There has to be a 'step one' mindset; not everything will be smooth sailing this season.

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Bennett Parker
BENNETT PARKER

Bennett is an undergrad student at Baylor University, studying journalism on the sports track. He is from the DFW area and grew up playing and watching sports, which inspired him to pursue sports writing.

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