Baylor Football Roundtable: Bears' 2026 Record and Will Dave Aranda Coach in 2027?

Baylor Bears on SI answer four questions about Baylor ahead of its 2026 campaign.

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We've made it; it's game week. The Baylor Bears will begin their 2026 season with a neutral-site game against the Auburn Tigers.

The Bears suffered a loss to the Tigers last season, and Baylor is looking to avenge the loss. But prior to the game, the staff of Baylor on SI had a roundtable disucssion to answer four pivotal questions regarding Baylor in 2026.

What will Baylor's final record be in 2026?

Trent Knoop

I think Baylor has talent this season, and adding Joe Klanderman as the defensive coordinator should help shore up the defensive errors that hindered it a season ago. With that being said, the Bears' schedule isn't easy whatsoever.

Baylor has to play Texas Tech, BYU, and Houston to end the season, which could be three losses to end the year. With that being said, I do think Baylor is bowl-bound and will get to 7-5 in 2026. An improvement, but not enough to get the fanbase super excited heading into 2026.

Bennett Parker

My prediction is that the Bears will go 6-6. While this is a boring prediction, looking at the schedule, it gets really hard to pencil in wins after Prairie View, LA Tech, and Colorado at home. I think that the Bears can get a signature win against TCU in Waco, but that will be the highlight of the season.

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Jacob Westendorf

5-7. I think that it's hard to ask DJ Lagway, who is not a finished product, to lift this program on his shoulders. He's surrounded by new players all over the offense, and has to learn a new offense himself.

I think they'll be competitive, but probably a year away.

Brad Teague

If Baylor beats Auburn in week one, I predict that Baylor is going to ride that momentum to a 5-0 start, dropping a close game to TCU, and ultimately finishing the regular season at 9-3 with the remaining losses coming against BYU and Texas Tech. However, if Baylor starts the season 0-1, limping their way to the end of the season and finishing at a record of 4-8 becomes almost painfully predictable.

A lot of everything hinges on the first game of the season, but write down this potentially lofty prediction: Baylor is going to the College Football Playoff but will ultimately lose in the first round. Baylor's end-of-season record: 9-4.

Jason B. Hirschhorn

A 5-7 record in the regular season seems like a realistic outcome. Baylor made significant changes since last season, most notably luring former five-star recruit DJ Lagway from Florida and hiring Joe Klanderman to run the defense.

Perhaps the team can build up enough momentum early to survive the brutal close to the schedule. However, the Bears couldn't stack more than two consecutive wins last year, and the opportunities to improve on that front look extremely limited in 2026.

What does DJ Lagway's season look like with the Bears?

Trent Knoop

We have to remember two things when thinking about DJ Lagway. He was a former five-star for a reason, and he played in a similar style of offense back in high school. The talent is real, but so were the turnover issues at Florida.

You can't dismiss what happened at Florida, but he's also coming to Waco, where he will be in a friendly system under Jake Spavital. I don't think Lagway reaches Sawyer Robertson numbers from last season, but reaching 3,000 yards isn't out of the picture, along with cutting down on the costly errors.

Bennett Parker

There is a very low floor and very high ceiling for Lagway at Baylor, and it is almost impossible to know where he will land. I think there will be games this season that Baylor wins because DJ shows out, and I think there will be games Baylor loses because DJ turns the ball over multiple times. In short, it will be a rollercoaster.

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Jacob Westendorf

I think he'll be ok. He'll struggle early. They have essentially replaced their entire offensive line and receiving corps around him; that's a lot to ask of a player who had his own struggles at Florida.

The hope if you're a Baylor fan is that he continues to improve between now and the end of the season.

Brad Teague

This is another one of those cases where everything comes down to the performance against Auburn. If DJ Lagway shows up as the same player from last season's Florida Gators, it's going to be a long, long season for Baylor fans.

However, if the DJ Lagway that's been impressing NFL scouts is the player that shows up, he could end up having an impressive year. He's not going to win the Heisman, but he's going to at least have the chance to impress a lot of people and put up some good numbers.

Jason B. Hirschhorn

The delta between DJ Lagway's perceived upside and his on-field productivity remains significant even after two seasons at Florida. In fairness, the Gators didn't surround him with the caliber of supporting cast one would normally expect from such a resourced program, but Baylor doesn't seem like a step up in that regard.

None of the Bears' top five leading pass catchers return for 2026, and, of the primary replacements, only 5-foot-9 transfer Gavin Freeman exceeded 20 catches and 160 receiving yards last year. That doesn't bode well for a signal-caller like Lagway who, while capable of making magic happen at times, has struggled with consistency and needs quality playmakers to lift his floor.

He also has dealt with nagging injuries during his collegiate career, even if those issues haven't cost him many games. QBs with less talent than Lagway have put it all together in more trying circumstances, but that doesn't mean he'll break through in 2026.

Who is Baylor's MVP this season?

Trent Knoop

I want to say Dawson Pendergrass because the Bears want to run the football in order to help DJ Lagway this season. However, Baylor has three running backs who could get hot and carry the ball in each game. Pendergrass is the lead back, but we can't forget about Caden Knighten or Michael Turner.

That takes me back to DJ Lagway. Regardless of what anyone says, Lagway is Dave Aranda's last hope and he needs Lagway to play like a five-star. This offense will go as far as Lagway takes it in 2026, and if Baylor succeeds, it will be because of the former Gator.

Bennett Parker

Dawson Pendergrass. If the explosive Pendergrass can stay healthy this year, I think he can lead a strong running back unit to an excellent season. His last healthy season was 2024, where he recorded 671 yards, and he has only gotten stronger.

Jacob Westendorf

Travion Barnes - I think he'll be on a mission to prove himself after missing most of last season with a knee injury. Barnes should be a playmaking machine in the middle of Aranda's defense

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Brad Teague

Running back Dawson Pendergrass will be the MVP this season, but not because he's going to have astronomical numbers. He's going to be the MVP because he's going to be the catalyst of the offense's rhythm and tempo. As an always-dangerous-when-he's-on-the-field threat, he's going to steal enough attention from the defense to make sure that he's contained to be able to fully focus on Lagway and the receiving corps, and that's the most valuable trait a player can have.

Jason B. Hirschhorn

The absence of Dawson Pendergrass materially impacted Baylor in 2025. A foot injury cost the talented running back the entire season, removing seven touchdowns and nearly 800 scrimmage yards from the offensive arsenal. With Bryson Washington transferring to Auburn, Pendergrass can take over as the lead back in Waco. That development should prove especially valuable at the goal line where seven of his 11 career rushing touchdowns have come from 5 yards out or fewer.

Will Dave Aranda be the head coach in 2027?

Trent Knoop

I have Baylor going 7-5; is that enough for Dave Aranda to get another season? It's a tricky question, and while I lean no, it might depend on how the Bears look this season. In Baylor's losses, is it competitive, or do the Bears get blown out?

Is there any hope for Baylor under Dave Aranda entering 2027 is the question at hand. Would DJ Lagway come back in 2027 if Aranda returns? Another tricky question. On paper, I don't think Aranda gets another season in Waco, however, there are other variables at hand that I just cannot answer.

So as of now, I'll say a 7-5 season would not get Aranda another season, but I'm not hinging my bet too heavily on that.

Bennett Parker

Most likely, yes. If my 6-6 prediction is correct, I think Coach Aranda squeaks by yet again. I just doubt Baylor is eager to fire him and buy out his contract that extends through 2029. But if the wheels fall off mid-season, Baylor will have to cut their losses and let him go.

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Jacob Westendorf

No. 5-7 would not have the Bears bowl eligible for the second consecutive season. That'll give Aranda his pink slip.

It's not unforeseeable that a bad start would put the athletic department under pressure to make a move before the season ends

Brad Teague

This one is tricky. By all accounts that I've found, Aranda seems to be a genuine gentleman. However, being "an easy guy to get along with" doesn't necessarily translate into championships. The fans appreciate good player morale, but the fans also want to leave the stadium watching their team win. My bold prediction though: Whether it's 4-8 or 9-3, Dave Aranda will still be Baylor's head coach next season.

Jason B. Hirschhorn

In the time since Baylor's 2021 Big 12 championship, the program has finished a season with a winning record only once (8-5 in 2024) and failed to qualify for bowl games twice, including last year. Those struggles compelled the school's president to give head coach Dave Aranda a public vote of confidence, though one which she admitted would "generate strong opinions."

That sets the table for a high-stakes 2026 campaign for Baylor. The Bears enter their season opener as heavy underdogs and finish the slate with three teams currently ranked inside the top 25. That leaves little margin for error for Aranda and his program, which probably needs more than just a bowl appearance to survive into next year.

The path to at least eight wins -- the number Baylor notched in their last successful season and a reasonable standard for Year 7 of this program -- looks precarious at best. The Bears will likely need to pull an upset against Auburn, BYU, Houston, or Texas Tech, all of which have higher projected win totals and, at least on paper, more proven talent. Tough matchups against Arizona State and TCU also complicate the picture.

Aranda has subverted expectations at Baylor before, but even with the personnel additions and changes to the coaching staff, falling short of eight wins seems more likely than not. Considering the apparent exhaustion within the school administration and booster class, the signs point to Aranda's tenure coming to a close before next year.

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