Four Games that Will Define Baylor's Football Season
In this story:
Baylor football is entering a big season for the program. Coming off a 5-7 season, there is no time to waste. They need to win, and they need to win right now.
Some games, however, are going to be more important than others throughout the year. Sometimes the answer is simply winning a rivalry game to salvage your season. That’s not the case at Baylor this year, although a rivalry game is going to make an appearance on this list.
Sometimes, it’s scoring a big upset early in the year to prove that the team is not the same as it was a year ago.
There are a multitude of games that are going to define Baylor’s season that fit all different categories.
These are the four that we’ve picked to define how this year will go, and ultimately whether the coaching staff keeps their jobs.
Sept 5. Vs Auburn
What better way to make a statement than a season-opening victory over an SEC opponent? The Baylor Bears have gone through a lot of turnover on the offensive side of the ball, and they’ll have no time to waste as the season begins.
This is no cupcake to begin the season, but rather the Auburn Tigers. Auburn is not Alabama, or expected to punch at the top of the SEC, but they’re still a quality opponent to begin the season.
Last year, Baylor lost to the Tigers by two scores on opening weekend. This year, they’ll be looking to avenge that loss.
This game will also mark the debut of new quarterback DJ Lagway. Lagway is expected to be a major contributor to the success of this year’s team, and fans will be chomping at the bit to see him take his first snaps in green and yellow.
A loss on the first week of the season does not kill Baylor’s hopes for any of the goals they may have, but it does raise the ceiling for what is possible in 2026.
Oct 3 @ Arizona State
After opening weekend against Auburn, the Bears will have three winnable games against two non-conference opponents, and a home game against Colorado.
Their first true road game of the season will come in the desert against Kenny Dillingham and the Arizona State Sun Devils.
By this point in the year, the Bears could be 4-0 and riding high going into their first road game. It is also their last game before their first bye week of the season.
Arizona State has been a good program under Dillingham, and Arizona State is a tough place to play. Winning on the road, however, is what good teams do. If the Bears are able to steal this game out west, the possibilities are endless.
A loss, however, and they could go reeling into a matchup with their biggest rival.
Oct 17 vs TCU
No matter the season, this game is going to make the list. The Bears’ biggest rival on their schedule every year is TCU, and this rivalry has been one-sided since the turn of the decade.
The Bears have beaten TCU one time since 2020. That’s a trend that needs to reverse itself immediately. It’s almost impossible to achieve goals within the conference without beating your rivals.
The Bears should be fresh, coming off a bye week. A win would be a cathartic moment for a program that has struggled immensely in the biggest games in Big 12 conference play.
A loss could help send the Bears into a tailspin.
Nov 21 vs Texas Tech
Baylor’s one game against a team who was a playoff team a season ago is the last Saturday before Thanksgiving against Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have reloaded this offseason and are expected to be one of the top teams in the conference.
Where Baylor’s record is at this point in the year could be something to monitor, because every game is precious to someone like Aranda who is fighting for his job.
Could the Bears, in form of desperation pull off an upset against Texas Tech and put a dent in their playoff hopes, while also save their coach’s job?
It’s not out of the question. This game will mark the biggest sign as to whether the Bears have improved enough to punch at a higher weight class.
#Baylor QB DJ Lagway was recently named to the Maxwell Watch List for the 2026 season.
— Baylor Bears On SI (@BaylorBearsOnSI) August 7, 2026
Here's how Lagway can win one of the top awards in the country this season.
STORY: https://t.co/iVdjeq6dtl pic.twitter.com/KL0MktHbbN
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Jacob Westendorf is a contributing writer for Baylor Bears on SI. He is also a writer covering the Green Bay Packers for Packers on SI. Westendorf graduated from University of Wisconsin-Green Bay where he earned a degree in communication with an emphasis in journalism and mass media. He worked in newspapers in Green Bay and Rockford, Illinois. He also interned at Packer Report for Bill Huber while earning his degree. In 2018, he became a staff writer for PackerReport.com, and a regular contributor on Packer Report's "Pack A Day Podcast." In 2020, he founded the media company Game On Wisconsin. In 2023, he rejoined Packer Central, which is part of Sports Illustrated Media Group.