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Reasons Baylor-Kansas Could Go Either Way, But Dave Aranda Can't Afford Another Loss

A devastating loss last week to TCU. Another loss this week to Kansas would be catastrophic for the Bears season.
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The loss at home against TCU hurt Baylor's chances at a run at the Big 12 Championship, being the first blemish on the Bears' record in the conference. A defeat at the hands of the Jayhawks on the road against Kansas however would serve as every right to sound the alarm bell on the season. No disrespect meant to Kansas, but Baylor can't afford to have two losses in a row with this many games left in the season.

At 4-2 (2-1 in the Big 12) Baylor isn't entirely eliminated from contention, but a 4-3 Bears team with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston still remaining (played the final weeks of the regular season, respectively) on the schedule, another sub .500 season for Coach Aranda and Baylor is still a possibility.

Baylor Wins If: O-Line Generates Push

The Colorado Buffaloes offense lines up against the Baylor Bears defense during the second half at McLane Stadium
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; The Colorado Buffaloes offense lines up against the Baylor Bears defense during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The offense may run through quarterback DJ Lagway, but without an offensive line capable to providing run support, nobody on Baylor is going to run for very many yards. Whether it's been injuries and penalties throughout the early part of the season, or whatever it is that's causing the Bears' O-line to be unable to push against the opposing defenses this season, the O-line's performance in this game is going to be vital to either a Baylor win or loss.

Baylor Can't Afford To: Become One-Dimensional

Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten (11) is tackled by TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Max Carroll (3) during the first half
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten (11) is tackled by TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Max Carroll (3) during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Against TCU, Baylor ran the ball 34 times for a net of 54 yards. Their worst performance of the season by far, the Bears absolutely can not afford to be unable to run the ball against a Kansas team that just allowed 350+ rushing yards to KSU. Baylor hasn't had the greatest of success running the ball this season, but is averaging 3.83 yards per carry on a team total of 901 yards on 235 carries.

Baylor Loses If: The Turnover Bug Strikes Again

Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) fumbles the ball as TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Koron Hayward (16) defends
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) fumbles the ball as TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Koron Hayward (16) defends during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Fumbles and interceptions absolutely need to be avoided if the Bears hope to win. It goes without saying, but granting the opposing team free possessions is a recipe for disaster. In the game against TCU, Baylor was very fortunate to have a Lagway fumble go out of bounds and McGowan able to cover his own muffed punt, or the 17-6 outcome could have possible been even uglier than it ended up being.

Baylor Head Coach Dave Aranda: Can Not Afford Loss to Kansas

Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda on the sidelines during the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda on the sidelines during the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A loss to rival TCU wasn't ideal, but the Horned Frogs came into Blackout on the Brazos with the nation's 8th best defense that was only allowing 13.4 points per game. Kansas' 85th ranked defense (allowing 28.5 points per game) will be hosting a Bears team hungry to get back on a winning streak. Coach Aranda simply can not afford a loss to the Jayhawks which would be Baylor's second loss in as many games in which they were initially favored to win. It would also further dishearten a fan-base that showed a lot of excitement in this Bears team only a week ago.

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Brad Teague
BRAD TEAGUE

Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.

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