Time for an Honest Conversation About Dave Aranda as Baylor's HC? I'm Not Ready to Give Up

Entering his seventh year as Baylor's head coach, Dave Aranda has had some successes (winning the Big 12 in 2021) but also many more failures as he's had more losing seasons than winning seasons. He's hovering right around a .500 record, and a coach that loses as many games as he wins can't keep going in this way. The fans in Waco deserve better.

Let's Not Overreact

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes and Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda greet each other before the game at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Yes, Baylor came out against TCU and laid a goose egg on offense, but TCU's defense came loaded for bear Saturday night. Heading into Blackout on the Brazos, TCU's defense rated 8th in the nation only allowing 13.4 points per game. It's the same defense that was able to keep Bear Bachmeier and BYU's high-octane offense in check in Week 5.

DJ Lagway Tried Playing Safe, But Still had a Rough Night

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) fumbles the ball as TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Koron Hayward (16) defends during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Throughout the broadcast of the game, DJ Lagway was reported as being restricted on how much he was going to be able to run. Surely the health of your starting quarterback is important, especially if he's not yet 100%. However, a quarterback with such a glaring limitation is all that TCU needed to not respect Lagway's ability to run at all.

TCU's Defense, Simple but Effective.

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten (11) is tackled by TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Max Carroll (3) during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With a defensive line able to stuff 34 total running attempts for 54 total yards, the rest of the TCU defense was able to sit in coverage most of the game. Dropping back into coverage with 7-8 defenders on each play, Lagway had very little room to connect with his receivers on a consistent basis. Lagway was pressured on very few plays, but without the fear of him tucking the ball and running it, the TCU zone defense was enough to suffocate most receiving options throughout the night.

I'm Still a Fan of Coach Aranda

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda reacts on the sideline during the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

No, he's not the best head coach in the game today. Yes, he's occasionally going to have games like this where the hype doesn't match the events that actually happen. The players are behind him though, and the players have bought into the culture that Coach Aranda has brought to campus. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Dave Aranda should not be fired as head coach and should return next season.

In the game of college football, the school of "what have you done for me lately?" tends to be a rather vocal one. Coach Aranda's past successes or failures are just that, he's had some success and he's also fallen flat on his face in some of these contests (mostly against TCU).

Baylor's Season Isn't Over, but the Momentum has Halted

Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Jadon Porter (3) reacts after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A win over TCU would have meant the Bears would be 5-1 overall, 3-0 in the Big 12, and in control of their own destiny. However, with the loss, the Bears are 4-2 overall, 2-1 in the Big 12, and scratching their heads and wondering what just happened. Any chances the Bears had of climbing into the A.P. Top 25 have been shattered for the next several weeks, most likely; even after Saturday saw many top teams stumble.

All hope is not lost, and the remaining schedule is still favorable enough that Baylor should still see a winning season and a bowl bid at the end of the regular season. The final three games of the season for the Bears became scarier than they already were, but still not an impossible task to overcome. It's not going to be easy finishing the season strong, but this Bears offense needs to bounce back next week on the road against a weaker Kansas defense, otherwise, even my faith in Coach Aranda may finally wear away.

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