The Blueprint to a Rout: Three Key Matchups for Baylor vs. TCU

Baylor heads back to McLane Stadium in Week 7 against the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday at 6:00 PM Central. The Bears are coming off a bye week and a dominant 36-point win, with Lagway and the running game dominating Arizona State.

TCU hasn't looked very strong in the past few games, losing back-to-back games and scoring just 23 points combined. Cut out the two blowout games against Grambling and Arkansas State, and Jaden Craig has had just one passing touchdown and 3 interceptions, with over 11 sacks allowed.

DJ Lagway vs. Horned Frogs Defense

Oct 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) warms up before the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This game will be decided mainly by Lagway's performance, hes coming off a stellar performance with over 300 yards and 5 total touchdowns. It seemed like the Bears were able to do whatever they wanted against the Sun Devils, and they will likely have a somewhat similar performance if they want to see a strong win.

TCU has been very successful in limiting the run this year, holding teams to about 100 yards a game, giving up their season-high against BYU last week with 154 rushing yards. Baylor is just under the top 100th-best rushing team in the country right now. And with how good TCU's defense has been, Baylor might not break 100 yards and will mostly rely on the passing game.

Baylor's Defensive Front Against Banged Up TCU Front

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; The Colorado Buffaloes offense lines up against the Baylor Bears defense during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

TCU has multiple offensive linemen that likely won't be playing Saturday. This is going to hugely affect Jaden Craig's ability to make plays in the pocket. Baylor needs to wreck this line and make it difficult for Craig the entire game. TCU has given up multiple sacks and turnovers against these power defenses.

If Baylor can maintain a strong amount of pressures, they should be able to make multiple turnovers, and give the offense chances to blow this game out of the water. Baylor is on pace to have over 24 turnovers this season, and getting at least two turnovers in this game will definitely affect the outcome of the game for the Bears.

Baylor's Red Zone Efficiency vs. TCU's Bend-But-Don't-Break Defense

While TCU has been able to mostly stop the big plays and keep most games to a lower score, Baylor has been extremely lethal once they reach the 20-yard line. A key to putting pressure on the Horned Frogs is being able to punch it into the end zone on those early downs and convert seven points instead of three.

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