Where Baylor Lands in ESPN’s Latest Football Power Index Rankings
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ESPN released its updated Football Power Index on June 30, providing an early look at how its analytics model projects the 2026 college football season.
What is the FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index is a predictive model designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. It accounts for factors such as returning production, recruiting, transfer-portal additions and previous team performance. ESPN then uses the ratings to simulate the season and calculate projected records, conference championship probabilities and postseason odds.
For Baylor, with the Big 12 still dealing with the ripples that came from the tidal wave that the Brendan Sorsby situation was, the preseason forecast places the Bears in the middle of a crowded Big 12 race.
FPI predicts Baylor to make a bowl game
Baylor ranks No. 37 nationally with a 6.5 FPI rating, sixth among the conference’s 16 teams. ESPN projects the Bears to finish 6.6-5.5 and gives them a 68.8% chance of reaching bowl eligibility.
The model also gives Baylor a 3.2% chance of winning the Big 12 championship and a 6% chance of reaching the expanded College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech enters the preseason as the conference’s clear favorite. The Red Raiders rank No. 10 nationally with a 20.0 FPI rating and a projected record of 10.8-1.8. Their 45.9% chance of winning the Big 12 is the highest in the conference.
BYU follows at No. 20 nationally, with Utah at No. 31, Arizona at No. 34 and Houston at No. 35. Baylor sits two spots behind Houston at No. 37.
The rankings also illustrate how tightly grouped much of the conference is behind Texas Tech.
Only 0.6 points separate Houston’s 7.1 FPI rating from Baylor’s 6.5. TCU is one-tenth of a point behind the Bears at 6.4, while Kansas State follows at 5.1. The narrow margins leave little separation among several teams expected to compete in the conference’s second tier.
Can DJ Lagway give the Bears a massive boost
Baylor’s position reflects a program ESPN views as competitive but not on the level of true contention for the Big 12 Crown. What the numbers can not forecast is the potential jump, especially with his first fully healthy collegiate preseason and back in his home state, for Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway
The Bears’ sixth-place conference ranking in FPI gives them a reasonable starting point entering fall camp. It also underscores the importance of Baylor’s games against the opponents clustered immediately above and below it.
With less than a point separating Baylor from Houston and TCU, the Bears will have opportunities to move up the conference hierarchy once the season begins. Winning those closely matched games could determine whether Baylor merely reaches bowl eligibility or emerges as a legitimate factor in the Big 12 championship race.
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.
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