Would Baylor Football's Latest Bowl Projection Make for a Successful 2026 Season?
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The question I receive most from fans of both Baylor and other schools is, "What constitutes a good season for Baylor?" This question is often followed up by, "Will that number of wins be enough to keep Dave Aranda around another year?" The answer is usually arbitrary; I also mention that the fashion of wins and losses matters a lot. In the past few years, Baylor has suffered some humiliating losses in the Big 12, most recently being walloped by Utah in mid-November last year.
In an ESPN article, Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach projected all college football bowl games for the upcoming season. Schlabach projected Baylor to miss a bowl game, while Bonagura projected Baylor to play in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl against SEC opponent Missouri.
Would this be a successful season for Baylor?
Obviously, missing a bowl game would be a failure of a season for the Bears and would almost for sure mean that Dave Aranda's time at Baylor would be over, but would making the Liberty Bowl go down as a success for the Bears? Historically, the Big 12 participant in this bowl game has won between six and eight games before being invited to the game.
Eight wins would feel like a massive success for Baylor in 2026, and I think it would be enough to keep Aranda and the staff around for another year. Six wins and seven wins is were it gets dicey; the fans will once again be angry, and Doug McNamee will be scouting out the coaching pool to see if an Aranda replacement comes available.
How does Baylor win or lose this season?
How and who the Bears win and lose to matters as well. If Baylor loses to TCU for the sixth time in seven years, the fans will be mad. If Texas Tech walks into McLane Stadium and beats the Bears by 20+ points again, the fans will be mad. I could go on, but the fact is Baylor needs to look competent throughout the year, there needs to be noticeable development in the younger players, and there can't be the familiar regression for stars that broke out last year.
There needs to be a feeling of hope heading into 2027 if Dave Aranda wants to be the head coach in 2027. The Liberty Bowl sadly won't push the needle for the Bears in 2027; the seven wins needed to get there will not excite Baylor fans, and I don't think that a seven-and-five season can be chalked up as a success.
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Jacob is a contributor for Baylor Bears On SI. A lifelong sports fan, he started writing game reactions and opinion pieces during Baylor football and basketball seasons, turning that hobby into a growing presence in sports media. He brings an authentic, fan-driven voice to his work and is excited to keep building his voice and breaking down the topics Baylor fans are talking about every day.
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