BYU Clinging to a 3-Seed in Joe Lunardi's Latest Bracketology

BYU's AJ Dybantsa walks the floor before a Big 12 Conference men's basketball game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026, in United Supermarkets Arena. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As the calendar nears February, March Madness is right around the corner. At 16-2, BYU is firmly in position to make the NCAA Tournament and try to put together another tournament run. ESPN's Joe Lunardi provided an update on NCAA Tournament seeding heading into the weekend.

Lunardi has BYU as the last 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

pic.twitter.com/TSIolZyJYY

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) January 23, 2026

BYU will have plenty of opportunities to improve their seeding over the next few weeks, starting on Monday when they host no. 1 Arizona.

KenPom Predicts BYU vs Utah

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Utah. KenPom gives BYU a 96% chance to win with a projected final score of 92-73.

BYU ranks 14th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Utes rank 114th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 75th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 210th.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• vs Utah: 96% (BYU win probability)
• vs Arizona: 43%
• @ Kansas: 39%
• @ Oklahoma State: 73%
• vs Houston: 54%
• @ Baylor: 64%
• vs Colorado: 92%
• @ Arizona: 19%
• vs Iowa State: 54%
• vs UCF: 85%
• @ West Virginia: 63%
• @ Cincinnati: 67%
• vs Texas Tech: 68%

KenPom predicts BYU will go 8-2-4.8 in its final 13 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 24.2-6.8.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 16 games. With 13 games remaining, BYU could win as many as 29 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 25, 26, or even 27 wins.

• 17 wins: 100%
• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 100%
• 20 wins: 99.9%
• 21 wins: 99.0%
• 22 wins: 95.5%
• 23 wins: 85.7%
• 24 wins: 67.1%
• 25 wins: 42.4%
• 26 wins: 19.9%
• 27 wins: 6.3%
• 28 wins: 1.2%
• 29 wins: 0.1%

A reasonable goal for BYU would be to finish with 25 or 26 wins. That would put BYU at 25-6 or 26-5 on the season and firmly in position to get a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the fourth best odds to win the Big 12.

• Arizona: 56% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 55%
• Iowa State: 9%
• BYU 6%
• Texas Tech 4%
• Kansas 1%