Three Weeks In, Analytics Rank BYU Among a Trio of Big 12 Contenders

The analytics view the Big 12 as a three-team race after three weeks

LJ Martin against Colorado State | Jaren Wilkey/BYU

We are three weeks into the Big 12 football season. BYU has lived up to the lofty preseason expectations so far. The Cougars came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Big 12, and the analytics still view them as one of the title favorites after three weeks. FPI views the Big 12 as a three-team race at this point of the season.

The Analytics View the Big 12 as a Three-Team Race

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the favorites to win the Big 12 per FPI. In fact, there is very little difference between the top three teams. FPI is a measure of a "team's strength on a net points scale, expected point margin vs an average opponent on a neutral field."

Utah ranks first in FPI after a shutout win over Utah State. The Utes have a rating of 16.5. Texas Tech is second with a rating of 15.8 and BYU is third with a rating of 15.2. No other team in the Big 12 has a rating better 11.2. There is a 73% chance that one of these three teams will win the league, per FPI.

ESPN FPI viewed Texas Tech as the clear favorite in the Big 12 coming into the season. After three weeks, the analytics have downgraded the Red Raiders for winning close games against Houston and Oregon State. Last year, Texas Tech was dominating the rest of the league. That hasn't been the case in 2026.

It's worth noting that BYU has the most difficult schedule remaining among the three Big 12 favorites and Texas Tech has the most favorable schedule.

Below are the chances for each team to win the conference per FPI.

1. Texas Tech: 28.0%
2. Utah: 22.8%
3. BYU: 22.1%
4. Kansas State: 9.0%
5. Houston: 3.5%
6. Baylor: 3.2%
7. TCU: 2.4%
8. UCF: 1.8%
9. Oklahoma State: 1.5%
10. Cincinnati: 1.4%
11. West Virginia: 1.3%
12. Arizona State: 1.2%
13. Iowa State: 0.9%
14. Arizona: 0.7%
15. Colorado: 0.2%
16. Kansaas: 0.0%

Kansas State is a team to watch as well. The Wildcats are undefeated and they have one of the easier schedules in the league. They don't have to play Utah, BYU, or Texas Tech in league play. They are capable of stealing a spot in the league championship, especially given their favorable schedule.

BYU's Offense is Leading the Way

The BYU offense ranks sixth nationally in offensive efficiency. That is the best mark in the Big 12. Georgia, Miami, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Florida are the only teams that have been more efficient than BYU on offense, adjusted for competition.

The efficiency metrics are less favorable for the BYU defense. BYU ranks 44th in defensive efficiency which ranks 9th in the league. The defense has been dominant at times and lackluster at other times. If BYU is going to win the Big 12, it will need more consistency from that side of the ball.

Chances to Make the College Football Playoff

Per FPI, there is a 1 in 3 chance that BYU will make the College Football Playoff. Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU are the only schools with more than a 20% chance to make the playoff.

• Texas Tech: 42.6%
• Utah: 35.1%
• BYU: 33.5%
• Kansas State: 15.7%
• Houston: 6.4%
• Baylor: 4.0%
• West Virginia: 4.0%
• Cincinnati: 3.0%
• TCU: 2.8%
• UCF: 2.2%
• Oklahoma State: 1.9%
• Arizona State: 1.6%
• Arizona: 1.5%
• Iowa State: 1.1%
• Colorado: 0.2%
• Kansas: 0.0%

BYU's Projected Win Total

Using FPI predictive game probabilities, BYU is projected to go 9.1-2.9 in the regular season. The Cougars are favored in seven of their nine final games. To accomplish their goals this season, BYU will likely need to win 10 regular season games, at minimum. There is a 39.9% chance that BYU will win 10 or more regular season games.

A 9-3 regular season is still the most likely outcome per FPI.

6 wins or more - 99.7%
7 wins or more - 97.8%
8 wins or more - 90.1%
9 wins or more - 70.3%
10 wins or more - 39.9%
11 wins or more - 13.3%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.8%

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