Evaluating BYU Basketball's 2026-27 Roster Construction

Let's take a closer look at BYU's roster for the upcoming season.

BYU basketball coach Kevin Young against Iowa State | BYU Photo

BYU has officially announced its roster for the 2026-27 season, and it arrives with one scholarship spot still open. Kevin Young may decide to use that slot for a potential midseason addition, similar to what the program did last season with Abdullah Ahmed. That roster spot could become more relevant if Jaxon Kohler is ruled ineligible to play this upcoming season.

With the team essentially finalized now, we can take a closer look at how the pieces all fit together. This group has a nice blend of returning production, power conference experience, youth, and international prospects.

Returners

• Rob Wright
• Khadim Mboup
• Dawson Baker (returning from injury)
• Nate Pickens (returning from injury)
• Brody Kozlowski (returning from injury)

Power Conference Transfers

• Jaxon Kohler (Michigan State)
• Collin Chandler (Kentucky)
• Jake Wahlin (Clemson)
• Tyler Betsey (Syracuse)
• Adam Stewart (TCU)

Freshmen

• Bruce Branch (five star)
• Dean Rueckert (four star)
• Brooks Bahr (three star)
• Dovydas Buika (Lithuania)
• Petar Ostojic (Serbia)

With 10 newcomers coming into the program, Young and the staff will hope to build chemsitry as quickly as possible.

So how good can this BYU roster be?

The Four Factors of Basketball Success

One way to evaluate the group is using a framework created more than two decades ago, when analytics pioneer Dean Oliver set out to answer this question:

What actually wins basketball games?

His answer became the Four Factors of Basketball Success, revealed in his 2004 book Basketball on Paper. He came to the conclusion that winning typically comes down to shooting, ball security, rebounding, and free throws. Oliver then landed on the factors below and weighted them to show which ones matter most.

1. Effective field goal percentage (eFG%): Shooting efficiency, with three-pointers weighted more heavily (40%)
2. Turnover percentage (TOV%): How often a possession ends in a turnover (25%)
3. Offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%): How often a team retrieves its own misses (20%)
4. Free throw rate (FTR): How often a team gets to the free throw line relative to its shot attempts (15%)

These factors are still widely used in basketball analytics to gauge a team's potential success. Shooting carries the most weight, though each one affects winning.

Each factor also has a defensive mirror: opponent eFG%, forced turnover rate, defensive rebounding percentage, and opponent free throw rate.

Looking at Young's first two seasons at BYU, we can see where the Cougars have ranked in each of the Four Factors on both ends of the floor.

KenPom data

Factor 1: Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)

Year one of the Young era was simple: shoot the lights out. The team had the seventh best eFG% in the country at 57%, beating the national average of 50.9% by a large margin.

Year two was a different build. Shooting got worse as BYU fell from 37th nationally in three-point percentage to 146th, with 12 games under 30% from deep. That brought the eFG% down to 54.4%, although that was still above the national average (51.4%). This group had to find other ways to score since it couldn't rely on shots falling from long range consistently.

Last season, BYU had just three core players in the rotation who shot at least 35% from beyond the arc. The 2026-27 roster has four players who hit at least 38% of their triples last year in college basketball.

• Wright: 41%
• Chandler: 41%
• Betsey: 40.6%
• Kohler: 38.9%

Pickens and Baker also shot 40.2% and 38% from deep, respectively, during the 2024-25 season. Freshmen Branch, Rueckert, and Bahr were all great three-point shooters in high school as well.

You could say Young has done a pretty good job of addressing the perimeter shooting woes from last season. That should set BYU up nicely for another year with a solid eFG%. The potential is there to be ranked within the Top 20 this season.

Factor 2: Turnover Percentage (TOV%)

Ball security is an area that BYU improved significantly last season, and things seem to be trending in the right direction with who the team retained and brought in.

With a more balanced roster than won't have to depend on two or three players for scoring, double teams from opponents should be less common against this group. There should be more spacing and room to operate on the floor.

At point guard, Wright had a better TOV% last season (12.4%) than Egor Demin did the year before (22.1%). However, there is still room for him to improve at taking care of the ball. He averaged 2.2 turnovers a game, so he'll want to get that number down going into this season.

CBB Analytics

This year's team will have more ball handlers to share the load as well, with guys like Baker and Pickens coming back from injury.

Chandler has also shown he can be reliable taking care of the ball. He had a TOV% of 12% last season. He averaged 2.3 assists and 1.1 turnovers a game.

In Young's first season, BYU ranked 199th in TOV%. Last season, the Cougars jumped to 80th. They should be able to be ranked at least that high in the 2026-27 season and have the potential to be a Top 50 team in TOV%.

Factor 3: Offensive Rebounding Percentage (ORB%)

Last year, Keba Keita was BYU's leader in ORB% at 13.6%. He also led the team in offensive rebounds per game (2.8), defensive rebounds (4.4), and total rebounds (7.2).

Luckily for the Cougars, they found a great replacement in Kohler, who had an ORB% of 12.8% for Michigan State this past season. He averaged 2.9 offensive rebounds per game, 6 defensive rebounds, and 8.9 total rebounds. Like Keita, Kohler also led his team in every rebounding category. He should settle in nicely in Provo if he's able to suit up for the Cougars.

Mboup wasn't too far behind in ORB% at 11.2% and has the potential to improve on that this upcoming year. He has flashed an ability to crash the boards at a high level. We saw that firsthand with his career-high 14 rebounds against Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament. In just 15.6 minutes a game, he averaged 5.1 rebounds.

Another guy to look out for is Branch. He averaged 10 rebounds a game his senior year at Prolific Prep and grabbed 14 rebounds against Brazil at the FIBA U18 AmeriCup. With a 7-foot-1 wingspan, he plays much bigger than he is and should contribute on the glass as well.

In 2024-25 and 2025-26, BYU's average height was 6-foot-6. This year's roster has an average height of 6-foot-7. Rebounding has been a constant emphasis from Young in his tenure so far, so the added length hopefully should play in his favor.

BYU has finished comfortably above the national average for ORB% in both of Young's seasons so far, and with a roster that has good size, the potential is there to do it again. This could be the year Young's squad could finally crack the Top 60.

Factor 4: Free Throw Rate (FTR)

The Cougars took a significant leap in free throw rate this past season, rising from 30.4% to 34.4%. That took the team from being ranked 259th in 2024-25 to 198th.

One of the best players in the country at getting to the charity stripe last year was AJ Dybantsa. He was sixth nationally in free throw attempts and 65th in free throw rate. Keita and Saunders also found ways to score at the line.

CBB Analytics data

The 2026-27 roster doesn't have as many players who try to get to the line at the same rate. However, one thing that stands out is Pickens' free throw rate in his final season at UC Riverside. He should continue to be aggressive at driving to the rim this season.

Even with a big leap year to year in free throw rate, Young's teams so far haven't gotten to the line frequently. It's hard to know how things will play out with this group but based on history, that's an area that will hopefully improve.

Defensive Identity

One of the biggest question marks about the new roster is how well it will be able to defend. BYU really struggled defensively in Young's first season (ranked 82nd in defensive efficiency), and although they improved in his second (up to 59th), the schemes were very inconsistent throughout the year.

There isn't a Mawot Mag on this year's team, but there are several players who can hold their own against teams on that end of the floor.

Mboup returns as BYU's best defender, but one intriguing and underrated piece is Wahlin. He graded well in defensive metrics last season. With his length and mobility, he can cause problems and guard multiple positions. Branch had a strong reputation as a two-way player in high school, so he should be able to disrupt opponents as well, especially as he gets stronger physically.

Last summer, the coaching staff also gave Pickens high praise for his defensive ability before he had to miss the entire season. Now we'll finally get the chance to see what he is capable of on the floor.

Others on the roster are capable of making an impact defensively but will need to take strides on that end.

With how elite BYU's offense should be, this is an area that needs to be more consistent if the Cougars want to make a run in March Madness.

Bottom Line

All signs point to this roster being a mix of Young's first two squads. It's impossible to replace a superstar like Dybantsa or a program legend like Saunders, but overall, BYU did a good job of retaining key pieces and bringing in talent that balances things pretty well.

Time will tell how far this team can go, but if its offense is anything like the last two seasons, BYU can beat just about anyone on any given night. The question remains how disciplined the Cougars can be defensively, but with the length the guys have, they could be better there than people might expect.