KenPom Predicts No. 23 BYU Basketball at No. 4 Arizona, Updates Projected Win Total

On Wednesday, BYU will rematch no. 4 Arizona. The Cougars and the Wildcats faced off in January - the Cougars came up just short of a comeback victory. Rob Wright had a game-winning shot at the rim that was blocked. BYU will try to pull off an unlikely win without star Richie Saunders in the lineup.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Arizona. KenPom gives BYU a 14% chance to win with a projected final score of 87-76.

Per KenPom, the game against Arizona is by far the most difficult game remaining on the schedule. BYU has at least 44% chance to win every other game on the schedule.

BYU has fallen all the way to 22nd in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 8th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 50th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Arizona ranks 3rd in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 11th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 3rd. On paper, the Wildcats have no weaknesses.

Before losing four-straight games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

@ Arizona: 14% (BYU win probability)
vs Iowa State: 44%
vs UCF: 84%
@ West Virginia: 58%
@ Cincinnati: 61%
vs Texas Tech: 58%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 3.2-2.8 in its final 6 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 22.2-8.8.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 19 games. With seven games remaining, BYU could win as many as 25 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, 23, or even 24 wins.

20 wins: 99.5%
21 wins: 93.9%
22 wins: 73.7%
23 wins: 39.6%
24 wins: 11.4%
25 wins: 1.1%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament have taken a nose dive over the last two weeks. A string of wins could get BYU back into the territory of a top-four seed. As of this writing, BYU is a projected 6-seed per Joe Lunardi.

If BYU is going to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding, they will have to find more production from role players and re-work their rotation on the fly.