5 Reasons No. 11 BYU Can Collect a Tough Road Win at Iowa State

BYU RB LJ Martin against Utah | BYU Photo

Before the season began, Iowa State was circled as one of the most difficult games on the schedule. On the road, after Utah, against a team that was ranked until just last week. Now that the game is here, it remains a tricky spot for BYU to pull off a win against a very good Iowa State team. BYU is an underdog after all. Should they be? That’s debatable. Here are five reasons BYU can beat Iowa State outright.

1. Running the football travels

BYU RB LJ Martin against Utah | BYU Photo

At this point, it’s safe to say that BYU’s offensive identity is running through an opponent’s face. BYU ranks 10th nationally in rush yards per game behind RB LJ Martin (5th nationally in rush yards) and Bear Bachmeier (25th nationally among quarterbacks). What’s crazy is that BYU actually runs the football better on the road, ranking 8th nationally in rushing away from Lavell Edwards stadium at 212 yards per game.

BYU ranks 24th nationally in rush success rate at just under 50% and will now face an Iowa State defense that ranks 63rd in rushing success rate allowed and 4th worst in run defense grade per PFF. BYU should be able to move the football on the ground on the Cyclones who are giving up 170 yards rushing per game over their last three games. Star DT Domonique Orange. “The Big Citrus”, as he is affectionately called, is listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game, which would be a big blow to an already overmatched Iowa State front.

2. So does defense

BYU defensive backs Tayvion Beasley and Faletau Satuala against Utah | BYU Photo

Rocco Becht is without question among the best quarterbacks on BYU’s schedule. The junior signal-caller torched the Cougars back in 2023, but this is a new day and a new time. BYU ranks 10th nationally in pass efficiency defense and has already faced four passing attacks more potent than Iowa State’s this season. Iowa State ranks 75th nationally in pass efficiency offense, lower than Utah, ECU, Colorado, and Arizona. Iowa State is a balanced offense that does everything pretty well, but so far this season, BYU’s defense just looks better. BYU’s defense is 13th in defensive expected points added per play (EPA) to Iowa State’s 40th, and 41st in offensive success rate to BYU’s 20th on defense. So long as BYU’s defense can continue to limit the big plays, BYU should be able to hold Iowa State in check

3. BYU should own the red zone

BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston against Utah | BYU Photo

It’s rare to find a discrepancy this lopsided but here we are. BYU ranks 4th nationally in red zone defense while Iowa State ranks 118th in red zone offense. BYU also ranks 31st in red zone offense to Iowa State’s 100th ranked red zone defense. Both offenses rank in the top 20 in quality drive rate, but the team that wins is generally the one that finds the endzone in the redzone. BYU’s defense does not give up big plays (9th in explosiveness allowed) and doesn’t let teams score often in the redzone either. If that is the case, it’s hard for the other team to score.

4. Bear Bachmeier should be able to pass off play action often from a clean pocket

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Utah | BYU Photo

Bear Bachmeier has been a wizard on play action this season, ranking as the nations 3rd highest graded passer per PFF and the country’s 14th most efficient passer. His average depth of target on play action passes (13.8) is higher than any of the top 40 highest-graded play action passers. From a clean pocket, Bachmeier has been hyper efficient, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (28th nationally). Bachmeier should have both at his disposal on Saturday. We’ve already discussed Iowa State's limitations against the run, but their pass rush has also struggled, ranking 120th in sacks this season. Iowa State is not a team that likes to bring a ton of pressure, and can't as their top 2 corners are listed as out for the season. Ordinarily a productive secondary, the Cyclones rank 77th in success rate per dropback and are allowing over 10 yards per attempt over their last 2 games. Saturday will be a golden opportunity to showcase his abilities as a passer, especially if Iowa State has to dedicate disproportionate resources to BYU’s ground game.

5. The post Utah letdown is kind of a myth

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against Utah | BYU Photo

It’s been well documented that BYU lost its next two games following the Utah game last season. While there is some truth to the difficulty of playing off a highly emotional rivalry game, it didn’t affect BYU much before as they won their next games after Utah in 2018, 2019, and 2021. This team feels different than last year’s team. Last Saturday was an emotional win for sure, which makes it all the more impressive that the team's postgame locker room speeches and press conferences were all about staying focused for a very good Iowa State team. Going into Jack Trice Stadium and getting a win is no easy thing. The Cyclones have won 8 of their last 9 home games dating back to last season, but BYU has also won 8 of their last 9 on the road. The game after Utah is always a tough one, but the Cougs are aware of that and their injury report actually got shorter this week. If BYU doesn’t come out a winner this week it won’t be because they played Utah last week.