BYU's Best & Worst-Case Scenarios for the College Football Playoff Rankings
The updated College Football Playoff Rankings will be released on Tuesday at 5 PM Mountain Time. For the second consecutive week last week, BYU was ranked no. 14 in the latest CFP rankings. Today, let's look at the best-case scenarios and the worst-case scenarios for BYU when the CFP rankings are released on Tuesday night.
First, this is how teams surrounding BYU in the rankings fared last weekend.
- #3 Oregon - L to Utah 38-7
- #4 Ohio State - W over Michigan State 56-7
- #5 Cincinnati - W SMU
- #6 Michigan - W Maryland
- # 7 Michigan State - L 56-7 to Ohio State
- #8 Notre Dame - W 55-0 over Georgia Tech
- #9 Oklahoma State - W 23-0 over Texas Tech
- #10 Wake Forest - L 49-27 to Clemson
- #11 Baylor - W over Kansas State 20-10
- #12 Ole Miss - W 31-17 over Vanderbilt
- #13 Oklahoma - W 28-21 over Iowa State
- #14 BYU - W 34-17 over Georgia Southern
- #15 Wisconsin - W 35-28 over Nebraska
- #16 Texas A&M - W 52-3 over Prairie View
Worst-Case Scenario
In the worst-case scenario, the teams that lost in front of BYU (Wake Forest, Michigan State, Oregon) would not drop below the Cougars in the rankings.
In addition, BYU could be leapfrogged by #15 Wisconsin following a lackluster performance against Georgia Southern.
Worst-case scenario ranking: #15
Best-Case Scenario
In the best-case scenario, no teams ranked behind BYU would leapfrog BYU. Then, #10 Wake Forest would drop below the Cougars after a lopsided loss to Clemson.
In addition, #7 Michigan State's blowout loss to Ohio State would force the committee to drop the Spartans down to #15.
Lastly, it will be fascinating to see how the committee treats Oregon. Even though Oregon has two losses compared to Utah's three, Utah was clearly the superior team on Saturday night. Will the Ducks be ranked ahead of the Utes on Tuesday?
In the best-case scenario, BYU would surpass Oregon after the Ducks were dominated by the University of Utah. Utah would rise to ~#16 in the CFP rankings giving BYU a victory over a top 20 team.
Best-case scenario ranking: #11
Most Likely
After last weekend, BYU has lost as many games as Oregon, Michigan State, and Wake Forest. In the most-likely scenario, the committee will rank those four teams based on their best win of the season.
Oregon has the best win over Ohio State.
Michigan State has the next best win over Michigan.
BYU has the third best win over Utah.
Wake Forest's best win came at the hands of NC State. NC State was ranked #20 in the latest CFP rankings.
In this scenario, BYU would climb up one spot in the rankings from no. 14 to no. 13. In addition, the Cougars would be primed to leapfrog the likes of Oregon and Michigan State should they slip up again.
Most likely ranking: #13
