ESPN FPI Predicts Potential Trap Game for BYU vs. UCF, Updates BYU's Playoff Chances

The Cougars will look to avoid a trap game in Orlando - BYU's chances to win

BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker against Notre Dame | Jaren Wilkey/BYU

There are many reasons why BYU's win over Notre Dame was so important. It was top 10 win at home, a win that catapulted BYU into the top two of the AP poll, and a win that gave BYU some wiggle room in the playoff race. It was similar to the top 10 win that Georgia had last week over Alabama.

And what happened to Georgia the following week? They lost as a home favorite to Auburn. There is danger in this game as the Cougars have to travel two time zones after an emotional win. The oddsmakers recognize that. BYU opened as a 9.5-point favorite and the betting line moved three points by the end of thw night. As of this writing, BYU is favored by just 6.5 points against the Knights. BYU will look to avoid a letdown loss like Georgia suffered last week. Here's what ESPN FPI says about BYU-UCF and the remainder of BYU's schedule.

BYU win probabilities by game per ESPN FPI | BYU On SI

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 70.7% chance to beat UCF. UCF is 3-3 and ranked 51st in FPI. In their three losses, UCF was competitive in the fourth quarters (Pitt, Houston, Oklahoma State).

After a win over one of the best team's in college football, BYU has at least a 70% chance to win every game besides the rivalry game. Excluding the Utah game, the UCF game is the most difficult remaining game on BYU's schedule per FPI.

11 or more Regular Season Wins is Now a Coin Flip

Going into the season, a 9-3 regular season was the most likely outcome for BYU. After beating Iowa State and improving to 5-0 on the season, a 10-2 season is the most likely outcome. After taking down the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 11-1 is now the most likely outcome.

We used the FPI game probabilities to calculate BYU's chances to reach each win threshold. There is a 55% chance that BYU will win 11 or more games in 2026. To ensure a College Football Playoff invite, BYU will need to go 11-1 in the regular season or win the Big 12 championship. More on the College Football Playoffs in the moment.

The chances that BYU reaches each win threshold | BYU On SI

To reach 11 wins, BYU just needs to take care of business in the games it will be favored to win. That is much easier said than done. FPI gives BYU a 36% chance to go 5-0 against UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati.

To go undefeated, BYU would need to win a road game over archrival Utah. FPI gives BYU a 16.1% chance to finish the regular season undefeated. That is up from 2.1% last week.

Where FPI could be wrong about BYU

FPI is just a prediction model that can miss key context. So where could BYU be wrong about BYU?

FPI did not move BYU up its rankings after taking down Notre Dame. In the opinion of this author, that is a major flaw in the FPI model. Notre Dame was the no. 1 team in FPI heading into that game and they are still top two in the country after the loss. How can you beat the no. 1 team and not move up in the rankings?

There is obviously some flaws with the FPI algorithm and BYU is just the team that exposes them.

BYU has taken its foot off the gas in multiple games to give backups reps. Unlike other teams (like Dan Lanning who scored a touchdown with less than a minute remaining against Portland State in an 84-0 win), BYU has taken a few knees that would have increased the model's outlook on BYU. Margin of victory is very important in the FPI logic.

What The Notre Dame Win Means for BYU's Playoff Aspirations

BYU's chances to reach the College Football Playoff skyrocketed with the win over Notre Dame. BYU now has a 70.6% chance to make the playoff. BYU had approximately a 33% chance to make the 12-team field before beating the Fighting Irish. BYU is now the Big 12 team with the best odds to make the playoff.

Playoff probabilities for each Big 12 team | BYU On SI

Per FPI, four Big 12 schools have at least a 29% chance to make the playoff: Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Houston. The league has never had a better opportunity to get multiple teams into the playoff than right now.

Keep an eye on Arizona. The Wildcats only have one loss on the road at BYU. They take on Utah and Texas Tech in November. Wins in those games could catapult them into the Big 12 title race.

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