BYU was a 24-point favorite over Utah State this weekend. The Cougars and the Aggies were tied at halftime before BYU pulled away in the second half. Following the lackluster performance against Utah State, ESPN FPI downgraded its win projection for BYU in 2022. FPI expects BYU to go 8.3-3.7. That is down from 9.1-2.9 a few weeks ago. Below is FPI's BYU-Notre Dame prediction, along with updated win probabilities for each of BYU's remaining games.
October 8th - vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (neutral site in Las Vegas)
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 30.0%
Preseason win probability: 18.4%
This is the most difficult game remaining on BYU's schedule according to ESPN FPI. FPI gives BYU a 30% chance to beat Notre Dame.
BYU and Notre Dame will face off in Las Vegas. Notre Dame put together a very respectable effort against Ohio State in week one only to lose to Marshall in embarrassing fashion in week two.
The Fighting Irish have won two straight coming into the matchup against BYU.
October 15th - vs Arkansas Razorbacks
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 57.8%
Original win probability: 46.4%
Arkansas has lost two consecutive games to Texas A&M and Alabama.
October 22nd - @ Liberty Flames
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 51.5%
Original win probability: 58.1%
FPI has downgraded BYU's win probability in this game to 52%. The Flames are 4-1 on the season and their only loss was a one-point loss to Wake Forest.
October 28th - vs East Carolina Pirates
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 75.3%
Original win probability: 80.0%
East Carolina was a missed field goal away from upsetting no. 13 NC State in week one.
November 5th - @ Boise State Broncos
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 57.5%
Original win probability: 43.0%
Boise State is 3-2 on the season with losses to Oregon State and UTEP.
November 19th - vs Utah Tech Trailblazers
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 99.6%
Original win probability: 99.7%
Utah Tech, formerly known as Dixie State, travels to Provo in late November.
November 26th - @ Stanford Cardinal
BYU's FPI Win Probability: 58.5%
Original win probability: 52.9%
It's been over a year since the Cardinal have defeated an FBS team. Oregon dominated Stanford last night.
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