FPI Predicts BYU vs Stanford, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

After a dominant shutout win over Portland State, BYU will turn its attention to Stanford. The Cardinal are coming off a bye week after traveling to Hawaii in week zero. ESPN FPI predicted BYU vs Stanford and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

FPI gives BYU an 89.2% chance to beat Stanford. Before the season, FPI gave BYU an 81% chance to win this game.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 8.9-3.1. Below are the game-by-game predictions.

Stanford - 89.1% (Up from 81.0% in the preseason)
East Carolina - 83.1% (Up from 79.0%)
Colorado - 71.6% (Up from 61.9%)
West Virginia - 85.6% (Up from 81.5%)
Arizona - 68.8% (Down from 73.1%)
Utah - 57.2% (Down from (70.0%)
Iowa State - 45.9% (Down from 47.1%)
Texas Tech - 60.8% (Up from 55.7%)
TCU - 74.4% (Up from 68.1%)
Cincinnati - 66.2% (Up from 60.5%)
UCF - 83.2% (Up from 72.7%)

BYU's outlook for both the Arizona game and the Utah game were downgraded after both of those teams looked good in week one.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 34.2% chance to win 10 games or more and a 2.0% chance to go undefeated.

5 wins or more - 99.8%
6 wins or more - 98.8%
7 wins or more - 94.6%
8 wins or more - 83.1%
9 wins or more - 61.4%
10 wins or more - 34.2%
11 wins or more - 12.2%
12 wins (undefeated) - 2.0%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved five spots in the FPI rankings after the shutout win over Portland State. The Cougars are now 17th nationally and the highest-ranked team in the Big 12.

BYU - 17th nationally
Utah - 19
Iowa State - 23
Kansas - 25
Arizona State - 26
Kansas State - 28
Texas Tech - 34
TCU - 37
Baylor - 42
Arizona - 51
Cincinnati - 52
UCF - 54
Colorado - 57
West Virginia - 61
Oklahoma State - 66
Houston - 68

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, arch rivals BYU and Utah lead the Big 12 according to FPI. Utah has quickly risen up the FPI rankings after a blowout win over UCLA. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

BYU - 22.9%
Utah - 18.8%
Iowa State - 17.3%
Kansas - 11.0%
Arizona State - 8.4%
Texas Tech - 4.8%
Kansas State - 4.5%
Baylor - 4.0%
TCU - 3.7%
Arizona - 1.4%
Cincinnati - 1.1%

BYU, Utah, Iowa State, and Kansas are the only four teams with more than a 10% chance to win the league according to FPI.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 27.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

BYU - 27.8%
Utah - 24.2%
Iowa State - 21.0%
Kansas - 13.9%
Arizona State - 10.4%
Texas Tech - 6.5%
Kansas State - 5.0%
TCU - 4.5%
Baylor - 3.7%
Arizona - 1.6%
UCF - 1.1%
Cincinnati - 1.1%