FPI Projects the 2023 Big 12 Standings

Earlier this week, ESPN unveiled the preseason FPI rankings for the 2023 college football season. FPI "measures [a] team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field." BYU came in at no. 60 nationally. Texas ranked first among Big 12 schools at no. 5 in the country while Kansas ranked last among Big 12 schools at no. 68. Using the FPI win probabilities, we projected the final Big 12 standings.

FPI Projected Big 12 Standings 2023

Team	Overall Record	Conference Record	Conference Win %
1. Texas	9.6-2.4	7.4-1.6	82.2%
2. Oklahoma	8.8-3.2	6.7-2.3	74.6%
3. Kansas State	8.1-3.9	5.7-3.3	63.1%
4. TCU	8.0-4.0	5.3-3.7	58.6%
5. Texas Tech	7.5-4.5	5.2-3.8	57.7%
6. UCF	7.6-4.4	5.1-3.9	56.6%
7. Oklahoma State	7.4-4.6	5.0-4.0	55.1%
8. Baylor	7.1-4.9	4.7-4.3	51.7%
9. Cincinnati	6.3-5.7	4.1-4.9	46.1%
10. Iowa State	5.9-6.1	3.7-5.3	40.8%
11. Houston	5.6-6.4	3.3-5.7	36.5%
12. West Virginia	4.4-7.6	2.9-6.1	32.1%
13. BYU	4.9-7.1	2.8-6.2	31.1%
14. Kansas	4.1-7.9	2.1-6.9	23.7%

Texas and Oklahoma top the FPI-projected Big 12 standings. FPI is very high on the Longhorns. FPI gives Texas a 54% chance to win the Big 12 in 2023. Oklahoma has a 24% chance to win the Big 12 according to FPI. TCU has the next-best odds with a 6% chance to win the conference.

FPI expects parity in the Big 12 once again in 2023. FPI projects the top eight Big 12 teams to lose two to four conference games (rounded): Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.

In the FPI projections, BYU ranks only ahead of Kansas. The Cougars will climb the FPI rankings quickly if they make improvements on the defensive side of the ball. After ranking 108th in the country in defensive efficiency last season, BYU parted ways with defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki and hired Jay Hill from Weber State. BYU has tried to inject talent from the transfer portal, adding six transfers on the defensive side. BYU isn't done adding players from the transfer portal. Between the new faces and the new scheme, BYU's defense will look entirely different in 2023.

BYU ranked 24th in offensive efficiency last season. The Cougars are looking to maintain a top-25 level by replacing lost production through the transfer portal. BYU will start Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis at quarterback and UNLV transfer Aidan Robbins at running back. There's a good chance that three of the five starters along the offensive line will be transfers. BYU is currently on the lookout for some wide receivers from the transfer portal as well, offering Eastern Michigan transfer Darrius Lassiter this week.

Given the parity in the Big 12, it would only take two or three more wins to make a big jump in the standings.

The FPI rankings will be updated as the season progresses.

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