Game-by-Game Predictions for a Highly Anticipated 2026 BYU Football Season

It’s almost here. BYU football returns this Saturday, meaning our long national nightmare is over. It’s been said ad nauseam, but it bears repeating: this is the most anticipated season in BYU history and looking at the schedule BYU has in front of them, there is opportunity for a remarkably special season. Here are our game-by-game predictions for the 2026 campaign.

Utah Tech

There's not much to say here but BYU should dominate. Utah Tech lost 54-0 in week zero to defending FCS National Champion Montana State at home. In that game, the Trailblazers were out-gained by 220 yards, out-possessed by 11 minutes, and were out-converted on third down by 40%. Utah Tech also allowed a punt block for a touchdown and threw two interceptions. Utah Tech did find some life in the second half with backup QB CJ Tiller, but there is no reason Utah Tech should score or stop BYU from scoring on any drive in the first three quarters. This game should be a carbon copy of what BYU did to Portland State last season.

Projected Spread: BYU -49.5

Prediction: BYU 63-0

Arizona

Arizona finds itself just outside the top 25 following an impressive 9-win season, largely due to the return of fourth-year starter Noah Fifita. Quarterback aside, there has been some turnover for the Wildcats this offseason, particularly in their vaunted secondary, with 4 of their 5 starting defensive backs taken in the NFL draft. Arizona did everything they could to reload, taking 7 defensive backs out of the portal, but with that many new faces, expecting the Wildcats to repeat as a top 10 pass defense will be a lot to ask.

The key to this game will be to speed up Fifita. In two starts against BYU, Fifita has been pressured on nearly 40% of his drop backs, completing 34% of his pressured passes, for 3.3 yards per attempt, 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Assuming Nusi Taumoepeau and Tausili Akana are healthy coming in, BYU should continue to make life difficult on the Arizona signal caller. On offense, BYU is fortunate to get the Wildcats early, as an almost entirely new secondary adjusts to a new scheme and terminology. I expect Bear Bachmeier to show much better against the Wildcats this year as BYU makes a statement at home.

Projected Spread: BYU -7.9

Prediction: BYU 34-21

Colorado State

A lot has changed in college football since the last time these old Mountain West foes faced off. BYU is in the Big 12 and Colorado State in the Pac-12. College football in 2026 is a weird place. The Rams are hoping for a sizeable improvement from a 2-10 campaign a year ago, undergoing a roster overhaul that included bringing in former TCU and Oklahoma State transfer QB Haus Hejny. Hejny was previously named the starter at Oklahoma State before an injury sidelined him for the year on just the second drive of the season. Still, not much is expected of CSU, who are projected to be the 107th best team in college football this season per SP+. Preseason predictive models can be wrong, but this is a vastly different kind of test than what BYU faced in the G6 road game a year ago at 9-4 ECU. Despite what should be a great atmosphere, BYU shouldn’t have much trouble dispatching their old conference foe.

Projected Spread: BYU -24

Prediction: BYU 41-13

TCU

BYU RB LJ Martin against TCU | BYU Photo

What looked like the biggest road test on the schedule suddenly became a lot more manageable this past weekend. TCU dropped a disastrous week zero opener to North Carolina in Ireland, which said a lot more about the Frogs than the Tarheels. TCU’s play matched the sloppy conditions, committing 11 penalties and multiple turnover on downs in the red zone. TCU could not find any kind of consistent rhythm offensively under new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis and QB transfer Jaden Craig. The game appeared to move too fast for Craig who held the ball nearly 3 seconds on average and managed just 5.5 yards per attempt. Good luck against a much better defense in BYU.

The other concern for TCU was their secondary, who posted the 4th lowest PFF coverage grade of any team in week zero and allowed 8.3 yards per attempt in a driving rainstorm. This is a spot where we expect BYU’s pass game to find a rhythm. TCU’s offense should be somewhat improved after 4 weeks worth of games, but If BYU can find a way to not beat itself, TCU might do the rest all on their own.

Projected Spread: BYU -3

Prediction: BYU 31-20

Iowa State

No team had a worse offseason than Iowa State. After its best 6-year run in program history under head coach Matt Campbell, Iowa State became a case study for what could have happened to BYU had they not retained Kalani Sitake. Campbell took the Penn State job and brought 23 former Cyclones with him. Iowa State lost 55 players total and replaced them with 39 incoming transfers from the FCS/G6 ranks. Iowa State got a good hire under the circumstances in Washington State's Jimmy Rogers, but raiding the closet of a 7-6 Pac-12 team likely won’t get it done in year one of the Big 12. It should be a major shock if BYU doesn’t roll at home.

Projected Spread: BYU -17.8

Prediction: BYU 35-13

Notre Dame

Can’t sugar coat this one, Notre Dame should be awesome this year. The Irish return 72% of production (#1 nationally) from a 10-2 team last year and are littered with NFL talent at every position. They have the best corner in college football in Leonard Moore and the current Heisman favorite at Quarterback in CJ Carr. Last season they finished top 10 in offensive and defensive yards per play and could realistically come to Provo ranked no. 1 in the country.

A win for BYU here would likely become the biggest win in program history and certainly the biggest win the Big 12 has had since BYU joined in 2023. For that to happen, BYU needs 2 of 3 things to be true:

1. BYU can repeat what it did against a top 5 scoring offense in Utah last season

2. BYU struck gold with Kyle Kasper, Walker Lyons, and Roger Saleapaga who have the talent profile to compete against the caliber of athlete in Notre Dame's secondary

3. Notre Dame’s dominance to close last season was purely the product of beating up on a weak ACC.

Our hearts say that crazier things have happened in Lavell Edwards Stadium. Our heads say there is too much unknown in BYU’s passing game to consistently sustain drives against the nation’s best secondary. BYU’s defense makes this one ugly, but BYU does not have quite enough offensive firepower to pull off the shocker.

Projected Spread: Notre Dame -9.1

Prediction: Notre Dame 24-17

UCF

BYU wide receiver Jojo Phillips against UCF | BYU Photo

UCF is going to be a tough game for BYU. Flying across country to face a revamped Knights roster a week after Notre Dame has all the makings of a potential disaster. Fortunately, BYU recovered quickly last year, following emotional games against Utah and Texas Tech with multi-score wins over Iowa State and TCU.

UCF is a fascinating team this year. The Knights return 61% of its production from a sneaky good defense last season and replace a revolving door at QB with former JMU and playoff starter Alanza Barnett III. If UCF hit the right notes in the portal, UCF could be one of the 5 best teams on the schedule. If not, they could be fighting for a bowl yet again. Ultimately, BYU is still the more talented team, but I think this game will be a little more uncomfortable than BYU fans want.

Projected Spread: BYU -10.7

Prediction: BYU 28-24

ASU

BYU wide receiver Jojo Phillips against Arizona State | BYU Photo

BYU will look to get revenge for one of the most painful losses of the last decade after ASU stole BYU’s 2024 playoff spot by a mere yard. This year's ASU squad will look a lot different this season after returning the 79th most production nationally, but there is still a lot to like here. Kenny Dillingham has proven to be a top three coach in the Big 12. The Sun Devils also arguably have the best WR corps in the Big 12 after grabbing the 2nd and 4th best available receivers in the country out of the portal in Boston College’s Reed Harris and Colorado’s Omarion Miller. The biggest question mark, though, is the guy throwing to them.

Boley has solid arm talent but had the fourth worst turnover-worthy play rate among P4 quarterbacks last season. I think that will be the difference against BYU. BYU returns all but one starter from a secondary that finished 9th nationally in interceptions and interception percentage last season. I think ASU makes BYU uncomfortable early through the air, but a pair of costly interceptions and a consistent BYU run game is enough to pull this one out.

Projected Spread: BYU -12.5

Prediction: BYU 31-27

Utah

Despite their preseason ranking, Utah has the most questions of any team on BYU’s schedule. How will returning QB Devon Dampier perform as a drop-back passer under a new OC that will likely ask him to throw more than half the time? Can Utah replace one of the best offensive lines in the country with 5 new starters that have combined for 8 P4 starts in 19 years of college football? Can Utah rebuild on the defensive line after finishing 112th against the run last season? Is Morgan Scalley as good of a head coach as a defensive coordinator?

The answer to all those questions may very well be yes, but this is one of the rare years when I really like BYU’s matchup against Utah. BYU bullied Utah on the lines of scrimmage last season, where BYU is almost certainly better in 2026 and Utah is almost certainly worse. BYU’s run game should travel, and if Utah’s run defense remotely resembles what it was to close last season, it should bode well for the Cougs. With the questions at offensive line, it's worth noting Dampier was the least accurate quarterback against pressure in the Power 4 last season, with a 41.4% accurate pass rate. If BYU can turn Dampier into a drop-back passer for the second straight year, BYU will pull away late.

Projected Spread: BYU -2.6

Prediction: BYU 31-21

Baylor

Baylor is in an awkward position going into 2026, having finished with a losing conference record in 3 of the 4 years since their 2021 Big 12 title. Head coach Dave Aranda’s job security might just rest on the arm of Florida transfer DJ Lagway, who is one of the more intriguing players in the conference. Lagway was a former 5-star recruit, and one of the best big-play quarterbacks in the country. His biggest flaw is that the big plays have almost always been offset by turnovers, posting a 28/23 TD-INT ratio in his two-year career.

What’s worse, he had a pass efficiency rating of 104.8 on the road last season with 5 TDs to 9 INTs on 5.6 yards per attempt. He will have to be better than that to beat BYU in Provo. However, it might not matter if Baylor can’t find defensive answers against the run, ranking 123rd last season in rush yards allowed. Baylor has tried to address that by bringing in 11 transfers along the front seven, but on paper, BYU should dictate terms along the line of scrimmage en route to a comfortable home win.

Projected Spread: BYU -13.6

Prediction: BYU 34-21

Kansas

It’s hard to imagine a world where BYU has a winning record against Kansas basketball and winless in football since joining the Big 12, but here we are. Kansas brings back OC Anthony Kotelknicki, but is in rebuild mode offensively after losing long-time starter Jalen Daniels along with over half of its offensive production. Kansas will now turn to Isaiah Marshall, who played sparingly for Kansas last season, primarily as an explosive run threat.

Kansas does bring back the 11th most defensive production in college football, but bringing back 67% of bad is still bad. The Jayhawks ranked 100th in yards per play allowed last season and 85th in scoring defense, allowing 28.5 points per game. Kansas should be a frustrating offense to face under Kotelknicki and Mitchell, but Kansas won’t have enough on defense to keep BYU’s offense off the field.

Projected Spread: BYU -8.6

Prediction: BYU 31-17

Cincinnati

After a promising 7-1 start to the 2025 campaign, it’s been all downhill for the Bearcats since. Cincinnati lost its final five games, its quarterback, its top five pass-catchers, and it’s number two running back in short succession. They did a good job replacing those receivers with a quartet of high-level transfers in Larenzo Fenner, Flynn Schiele, Cade Wolford, and JV Gibson, but transfer QB JC French IV has yet to post more than 3,000 yards or 20 TDs in his three-year career at Georgia Southern.

On defense, Cincinnati returns 57% of a defense that ranked in the bottom half of the P4 in both yards per play allowed and points per game. You might also remember the Bearcats gave up 222 yards rushing to BYU running back LJ Martin with a conference title game berth on the line last season. Cincinnati projects as the 3rd worst team in the BIG12 per SP+ and will be asked to come to Provo over Thanksgiving when bowl eligibility is very much a question. BYU is the better squad here and should roll by double digits.

Projected Spread: BYU -14.4

Prediction: BYU 38-17

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