Keys to a BYU Win Over Arkansas and Score Prediction

On Saturday evening, Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in a battle of two undefeated teams. With just hours before kickoff, we talk through the keys to the game and predict the final score.

Keys to the Game

1. Win the Turnover Battle

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is in his fourth season as the Razorbacks' head coach. As BYUtv's Jarom Jordan pointed out, the Razorbacks are undefeated (14-0) in games where they win the turnover battle. They are 7-17 in games where they lose or tie the turnover margin.

BYU must neutralize the turnover battle, at minimum, to stay in this game. To pull off the upset on the road, the Cougars will need to win the turnover battle and set up a short field or two for the offense. That's no small task - the Razorbacks haven't committed a turnover this season.

BYU and Arkansas have been two of the best teams in the country in terms of turnover margin. The Razorbacks are best in the nation with a turnover margin of +6: six turnovers gained and zero turnovers lost. BYU is tied for eighth in the country with five turnovers gained and one turnover lost.

2. Give Kedon Slovis Time to Throw

According to PFF, Kedon Slovis has zero turnover-worthy throws when he is in a clean pocket this season. When he is pressured, Slovis has made three turnover-worthy throws. That represents 12% of his drop-backs.

BYU needs to keep Slovis clean - and that's something they've struggled with this season. Slovis has been pressured 22 times this season On the other sideline, Arkansas has been one of the top teams in the country at pressuring the quarterback. Arkansas ranks fifth in the country with 4.5 sacks per game.

If Arkansas consistently pressures Slovis, it could be a long day for the BYU offense. The BYU offensive line needs to play their best game against Arkansas.

3. Get off the field on third down

BYU was one of the worst third-down defenses in the country last season, and the game against Arkansas was the worst performance of the season. On that day, the BYU defense allowed 12 first downs on 15 third downs. BYU's third-down deficiencies were the difference in the game.

BYU has been better on third down this season, allowing 10 first downs on 30 tries. There were a few moments last week, however, where BYU struggled to get off the field on third and long. SUU converted 8 of 16 third down tries against BYU.

If BYU gets Arkansas in third-and-long situations, they need to get off the field.

4.Pressure and confuse KJ Jefferson

Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson is one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he has a clean pocket. BYU defensive Jay Hill has the unenviable task of trying to limit Jefferson on Saturday. BYU's defense must pressure KJ Jefferson and limit his ability to go through all of his reads. They also have to mix up coverages to cause confusion and force mistakes.

If BYU doesn't get KJ Jefferson out of rhythm, it will be another long day for the BYU defense. It's also important to account for Jefferson in the run game. The Razorbacks like to use Jefferson as a runner in short-yardage situations.

Prediction

It's never easy to win on the road in SEC country. This is a winnable game for BYU, but the Cougars will need to clean up various mistakes to give themselves a chance. The fate of this game probably lies with the offensive line. If BYU can win at the line of scrimmage, they will have every chance to pull off the upset.

The defense was embarrassed by Arkansas last season. The defense will have a much better showing on Saturday evening. This will be a relatively low-scoring game that is a one-possession game in the fourth quarter. Ultimately, BYU's struggles to consistently run the football will be the difference, and KJ Jefferson makes just enough plays to pull out the win.

Arkansas 28 - BYU 24

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