Preview and Prediction: BYU Faces its Stiffest Test in 4-1 Arizona

BYU RB LJ Martin against WVU | BYU Photo

BYU continues conference play Saturday with a tilt against 4-1 Arizona on a stormy night in Tuscon. The last time BYU faced Arizona, BYU was the better team by a significant margin. It’s probably best to throw that out of your analysis for Saturday. Arizona is a much-improved football team this season, with their three wins over FBS opponents coming by an average of 23 points. What’s been the catalyst for their resurgence? Let’s dig in.

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita (1) passes the ball over Iowa State Cyclones' linebacker Carson Willich (14) during the third quarter in the Big-12 conference showdown on Sept. 27, 2025, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Arizona QB Noah Fifita appears to be back to his freshman form. The third-year starter is PFF’s second highest-graded QB in the Big 12 this season, and ranks in the top 20 nationally in touchdowns (13), turnover-worthy play rate (1.5%), and big-time throws (11). All this while losing his favorite receiver Tet McMillan to the first round of the NFL draft. Fifita is an infectious gunslinger who has a flare for the dramatic in high leverage moments. On third down this season, Fifita completes 73% of his passes for over 10 yards per attempt. On third and 9+, he completes 84% of his passes for over 13 yards per attempt. Fifita is a capable runner, but is more likely to use his legs to buy time and take a shot rather than take off if his first read is unavailable. Fifita ranks 145th of 154 eligible quarterbacks this season in average time to throw, resulting in his being sacked 11 times this season. His test will be to beat BYU's 7th ranked secondary in terms of pass efficiency which stifled him in Provo a year ago.

While Fifita has been stellar, his offensive supporting cast has been just ok. Arizona’s receiving core ranks eighth worst in the Power Four according to PFF and has a nearly 8% drop rate. The Wildcats have had a different leading receiver against every FBS team they’ve played with none going for over 100 yards in a game. Their offensive line ranks 53rd in pass blocking and 44th in run blocking while ranking 65th in offensive success rate per rush. Running back Ismail Mahdi has been hit and miss this season, rushing for 189 yards vs Kansas State, but mustering just 34 yards on 14 carries against a bad Oklahoma State team. In total, Arizona’s offense is capable but not dominant, ranking 62nd in offensive efficiency per FEI and 61st in yards per play.

When BYU has the ball

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier against WVU | BYU Photo

The strength of this Arizona team is clearly their secondary. The Wildcats rank 2nd in success rate allowed per dropback, 3rd in pass efficiency defense, and 4th in coverage grade according to PFF. Arizona’s five highest-graded players on defense all play in their secondary, led by Safety Genesis Smith who has the 14th highest coverage grade in the country. That said, they have faced one team in the top 60 in pass efficiency offense. In that game, Iowa State threw for 288 yards on just 22 attempts en route to giving up 39 points in a 25-point loss. BYU on the other hand ranks 32nd in pass efficiency.

Even if BYU can pass on Arizona, though, the run game faces a stiff test in a Wildcat front that ranks 12th nationally in opponent yards per rush. Part of that is Arizona’s pass rush which ranks 20th in sacks per game at just under 3. That pressure, though, might be a result of volume over effectiveness. Arizona plays an aggressive style of defense, blitzing 47% of the time this season, but only generates pressure on 27% of dropbacks. By comparison, BYU’s defense blitzes at roughly the same rate but generates pressure on 37% of dropbacks. As a whole, though, Arizona’s defense more closely resemble BYU’s own defensive strength and style than what they have faced so far this season.

Prediction

BYU RB LJ Martin against WVU | BYU Photo

We’ve said it multiple times now, but this is by far BYU’s toughest test. The Wildcats actually rank higher in SP+ (37th) than ranked in-state rival Arizona State (39th) thanks in large part to a nasty defense. Still, BYU might be more tested than Arizona this season. Arizona has played one defense in the top 60 of FPI’s defensive efficiency (Iowa State) and scored 14 points, averaged 5 yards per play, and gained just 41% of available yards. Meanwhile, BYU has played two top 60 defenses in ECU and West Virginia. In those games, BYU averaged 36 points, 7 yards per play, and 65% of available yards gained. We established that Arizona’s defense has yet to play an offense as good as BYU’s. BYU’s defense though, played a more efficient offense than Arizona’s in Colorado, holding them to under 300 yards and under 40% available yards gained.

It would be hypocritical, though to say that Arizona’s success has been fraudulent because they’ve beaten bad teams. Far from it. Arizona has the quarterback and the defense to cause plenty of problems for BYU, especially if the sloppiness that plagued the West Virginia matchup reappears. As such, we expect this to be a defensive dog fight all night long, especially given the impending inclement weather. In a battle of two top 10 secondaries in terms of pass efficiency, the game will be decided by whoever is more effective at running the football. In that regard, we give the edge to BYU. BYU ranks 4th in run blocking per PFF and ranks 20 spots higher than Arizona in both success rate and EPA per rush. BYU RB LJ Martin has had the full attention of opposing defenses as opponents have dared Bear Bachmeier to beat them. Now that he has proven that he can both on the ground and through the air in back-to-back weeks, we expect Martin to have a return to form Saturday.

BYU 24-21 Arizona