Preview and Prediction for BYU vs No. 14 Oklahoma

BYU is 5-5 and coming off a blowout loss to Iowa State. For the first time in program history, the Cougars host the Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma is 8-2 and ranked 14th in the College Football Playoff rankings. Today, we'll preview BYU-oklahoma and predict the final score.

BYU Quarterback Situation

On Wednesday, BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick met with the media. He said BYU was undecided on its starting quarterback for the game against Oklahoma. Roderick said starter Kedon Slovis was not 100% yet, and that he won't play until he is 100% healthy.

BYU likely won't announce the starting quarterback until an hour or two before kickoff. Jake Retzlaff has started the last two games at quarterback for BYU.

Retzlaff, who was the lone bright spot in the loss to West Virginia, struggled mightily against Iowa State. Retzlaff was 10/27 for 104 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. His mobility was a benefit to the BYU offense, but he struggled to see the field and he missed some key throws.

Keys to the Game

Avoid Catastrophe in the First Quarter

You'd be hard pressed to find a college football team with more catastrophic starts than BYU this season.

Against Arkansas, BYU trailed 14-0 in the first five minutes after the Razorbacks had two touchdowns of 50+ yards.
Against Kansas, BYU fumbled on the first possession and Kansas returned the fumble for a score.
Against TCU, BYU threw a pick-six on the first drive.
Against Texas, the Longhorns returned BYU's first punt for a touchdown.
Against Iowa State, BYU threw an interception on the first play and the Cyclones scored a touchdown off the turnover. On the ensuing kickoff, BYU fumbled on the return and Iowa State recovered. The Cyclones took a 10-0 lead before BYU had taken two snaps on offense.

That doesn't even include a game against West Virginia where BYU trailed 27-0 at halftime.

Needless to say, BYU needs to avoid catastrophe in the first quarter against Oklahoma. If BYU commits turnovers in the first few minutes, the game could be over by halftime like it was against Iowa State and West Virginia.

Win the Turnover Battle

Speaking of turnovers, turnover margin has been the story of season for this BYU football team. The turnover margin has determined most of BYU's games this season. In five wins, BYU is +12 in turnover margin. In four losses, BYU is -8 in turnover margin. At the time of this article, BYU is a 24-point underdog to the Sooners. If BYU is going to pull off the monumental upset, they have to win the turnover battle by two or three at minimum.

Unfortunately for BYU, Oklahoma is a top-10 team in terms of turnover margin this season. The Sooners have only lost 12 turnovers all season.

However, six of the 12 turnovers came in their two losses. On offense, BYU has struggled to march the full length of the field to score points. The Cougars rank 123rd nationally in total offense. Giving BYU's offense a few short fields by creating turnovers would significantly increase the odds of an upset.

Capitalize on Scoring Opportunities

Against Texas, BYU's defense put together on of their best performances of the season and kept BYU in the game. The offense, however, struggled to capitalize on scoring opportunities and never gave BYU a real chance to get back in the game. BYU had the ball inside the Texas 10 yard-line on multiple occasions and scored only six points.

BYU started off the season as one of the best red zone teams in the country. That has taken a turn for the worse over the last few weeks. BYU has scored on 78% of red zone opportunities this season. Over the last three weeks, they've only scored on 50% of red zone opportunities. Among BYU's many problems over the last few weeks, this is up near the top.

BYU doesn't have the luxury to kick field goals in this game. When the Cougars are in the red zone, they must come away with touchdowns.

Score Prediction

BYU isn't ready to compete every week in a Power Five league. The talent isn't there yet. However, I think BYU will look better against Oklahoma than they did against Iowa State and West Virginia. Lavell Edwards Stadium will be at capacity and Kalani Sitake teams have bounced back from losing streaks before.

In 2019, BYU bounced back from a three-game losing streak to beat Boise State. In 2022, BYU overcame a winless October to beat Boise State in Boise.

Although BYU will look like an improved team compared to last week, I don't think the Cougars will have enough offensive firepower to keep up with this Oklahoma offense.

BYU 20 | Oklahoma 42

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