Seven Things the Returning Production Rankings Taught Us About BYU's 2023 Schedule

On Wednesday, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his annual returning production rankings. Returning production rankings are properly named, they attempt to answer the following question: net of the transfer portal, which college football teams return the most production next season? BYU ranked 70th in returning production in the inaugural rankings. Here are seven things the returning production rankings taught us about BYU's 2023 schedule.

Seven Things We Learned About BYU's 2023 Schedule

1. A tough Big 12 opener at Kansas

BYU's first Big 12 conference game will be on the road at Kansas. The Jayhawks, who went to a bowl game for the first time in 14 years last season, will be one of the most experienced teams in the country. The Jayhawks rank second nationally in returning production. Their offense returns 91% of its production from last season which ranks first in the country. Kansas already had one of the better offenses in college football last season - the Jayhawks ranked 21st last season in scoring offense with 35.6 points per game. A more experienced unit could produce even better results in 2023.

Kansas in 2023 won't be the Kansas of old. The Big 12 opener will be a challenge for BYU.

2. Is Texas actually back?

The Longhorns are viewed as one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this season - returning production is a big reason why. The Longhorns return 74% of the production from a team that went 8-5 last season. 74% returning production ranks 19th in the country.

The Longhorns were better than their record suggested last season - all five of their losses last season were one-score games.

Regardless of their history of falling short of preseason expectations, the game at Texas will likely be one of the most difficult on BYU's 2023 schedule. Texas might actually be back in 2023.

3. Cincinnati looks like a must-win game

BYU's first Big 12 home game will come against fellow newcomer Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been one of the most consistent programs in the country over the last few years, but the data suggests they could regress in 2023. Cincinnati ranks 124th in returning production, and the Bearcats lost head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin.

If BYU is going to qualify for a bowl game in 2023, the home game against Cincinnati is looking more and more like a must-win game.

4. An inexperienced Big 12

The Big 12 only has two teams in the top 50 of returning production: Texas and Kansas. TCU and Kansas State, who played each other last year in the Big 12 championship game, rank in the bottom half of the country in returning production. In fact, Connelly named both TCU and Kansas State as two of the five most likely teams to regress in 2023.

The Big 12 has the makings of a wide open conference race in 2023, especially if Texas falls short of preseason expectations.

5. A lot of unknowns surrounding TCU

After a historic run in 2022, TCU has to replace the following in 2023:

- Starting quarterback and Heisman finalist Max Duggan

- Two leading rushers

- Three leading receivers

- Three starting offensive lineman

The game at TCU in October appeared to be one of the most difficult on BYU's schedule. It might be, but there are a lot of unknowns surrounding TCU in 2023. The Horned Frogs nearly rank dead last in returning offensive production, and their defense ranked 90th in points allowed last season. That game at TCU might not be as insurmountable as it appeared when the schedule was released.

6. New-look Arkansas

Speaking of teams that lose a lot of experience in 2023. Arkansas ranks 106th in returning production. The Razorbacks will feature a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball, and their home game against BYU will be their first test of the season (they play Western Carolina and Kent State in weeks one and two).

While the Razorbacks will have to replace a lot of production, they return a lot of production at the most important position: quarterback. KJ Jefferson, who racked up 399 yards and five touchdowns against BYU last season, returns in 2023.

If BYU's new defensive staff can find a way to contain Jefferson, BYU will have a chance to beat Arkansas in week three.

7. What to make of the finale at Oklahoma State?

BYU closes the season on the road at Oklahoma State. That game looks a lot different in 2023 than it would have in 2021 when Oklahoma State was the Big 12 runner-up. Oklahoma State limped to the finish line in 2022 losing six of its last eight games. The Cowboys have arguably lost more to the transfer portal than any team in college football. Looking ahead to 2023, Oklahoma State ranks 89th in returning production and will feature a lot of new faces on a defense that ranked in the bottom half of the Big 12 last season.

BYU will be playing its tenth consecutive game against a Power Five opponent. That doesn't bode well for BYU's depth - the Cougars still need to elevate their roster to endure a Power Five schedule.

In the end, I'm not sure what to make of the game against Oklahoma State. You could argue that Oklahoma State is vulnerable in 2023, that would probably be true. You could also argue that a final road trip to Oklahoma State will cause BYU problems after a challenging November. That would probably also be true. Time will tell where both of these programs will stand at the end of November, but it might be a game where both teams are playing for bowl eligibility.

Ranking Big 12 Teams by Returning Production

Here's a quick look at the Big 12 teams that return the most production in 2023.

Kansas - (85% - ranked no. 2 nationally)
Texas - (74% - ranked no. 19 nationally)
UCF - (66% - ranked no. 51 nationally)
Texas Tech - (64% - ranked no. 64 nationally)
West Virginia - (64% - ranked no. 66 nationally)
Iowa State - (63% - ranked no. 67 nationally)
BYU - (63% - ranked no. 70 nationally)
Kansas State - (63% - ranked no. 76 nationally)
Oklahoma - (62% - ranked no. 77 nationally)
Houston - (60% - ranked no. 82 nationally)
Oklahoma State - (57% - ranked no. 89 nationally)
Baylor - (55% - ranked no. 100 nationally)
TCU - (52% - ranked no. 118 nationally)
Cincinnati - (46% - ranked no. 124 nationally)

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