SP+ Predicts No. 25 BYU vs USF

ESPN's Bill Connelly released the SP+ predictions for week one, meaning the college football season is one step closer. Each week, Connelly unveils score predictions for every game involving an FBS team. On Tuesday, Connelly cemented his prediction for BYU-USF. SP+ likes BYU's chances on the road at USF.

🫡🥳 WEEK 1 SP+ PICKS 😤🤯

UGA 36, Oregon 17
Ohio State 35, ND 23
Arkansas 29, Cincy 26
Utah 29.1, Florida 28.9
Pitt 36, WVU 22
Penn State 26, Purdue 22
LSU 28, FSU 24
Baylor 46, Albany ... 1

THE SPREADSHEET IS UP. (FCS/D2/D3/NAIA!! coming soon!)https://t.co/ld8Z9RqL9c pic.twitter.com/3LmuvPQQsu
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 30, 2022

SP+ gives BYU an 84% chance to beat USF with an expected final score of 37-20. At 84% win probability, SP+ is much higher on the Cougars' chances than ESPN FPI. FPI gives BYU a 64.8% chance to beat USF. The difference between the two predictions is likely the weighted value of returning production in the SP+ formula. Returning production, where BYU ranks first in the country, is one of the three pillars of the SP+ formula.

SP+ is also higher on BYU than the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. The Cougars are 12-point favorites against USF according to betting lines and the over/under is set at 58.5, meaning the implied projected final score is 35-23 in favor of BYU.

BYU and USF kick off at 4:00 PM EST on ESPNU. Below are other notable SP+ predictions for this week.

Notable Week One SP+ Predictions

Utah 29 - Florida 29 (tossup)

Notre Dame 23 - Ohio State 35

Utah State 11 - Alabama 48

Boise State 26 - Oregon State 23

Arkansas 29 - Cincinnati 26

Georgia 36 - Oregon 17

Colgate 11- Stanford 47

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