FPI Predicts BYU at Colorado State, Increases BYU's Conference Title Odds

On Saturday, no. 15 BYU pulled away from Arizona in the second half to improve to 2-0 on the season. Up next is a road trip to former conference foe Colorado State. The Cougars and the Rams will play each other for the first time since since 2010, BYU's last season in the Mountain West. The Rams are 2-0 and coming off a win over Southern Utah.

ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Colorado State. FPI gives BYU a 90.9% to beat the Rams on the road.

FPI Updates Prediction for BYU's 2026 Schedule

BYU's projected record increased from 8.8-3.2 to 9.1-2.9 after the win over Arizona. Most notably, BYU is no longer favored in every conference game. After rival Utah dominated Arkansas on Saturday night, the Utes surged up FPI's rankings. FPI now gives BYU a 45% chance to win that game, down from 59% in the preseason.

Below are the game-by-game predictions after week two.

Colorado State: 90.9% (94.7% in the preseason)
TCU: 71.0% (64.9% in the preseason)
Iowa State: 89.6% (89.0% in the preseason)
Notre Dame: 24.5% (24.0% in the preseason)
UCF: 66.7% (67.7% in the preseason)
ASU: 82.8% (78.9% in the prseason)
Utah: 45.2% (58.7% in the preseason)
Baylor: 77.6% (76.4% in the preseason)
Kansas: 81.0% (71.9% in the preseason)
Cincinnati: 77.7% (82.7% in the preseason)

Odds of a Special Season

Expectations were high for BYU going into the 2026 season and so far, the Cougars have delivered. What are the chances BYU can deliver another special season? Using FPI win probabilities, there is a 38.5% chance that BYU will win 10 or more regular season games.

However, 9-3 is still the most likely outcome per FPI.

6 wins or more - 99.6%
7 wins or more - 97.2%
8 wins or more - 88.7%
9 wins or more - 68.4%
10 wins or more - 38.5%
11 wins or more - 12.8%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.7%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved one spot in the FPI power rankings after beating Arizona. FPI favored BYU by 10 points and the Cougars won by 11 points, so for the most part, BYU performed exactly as FPI expected (This is a prime example where BYU's power ranking would have been boosted by scoring a late touchdown instead of taking a knee). The Cougars moved from no. 19 to no. 18, leapfrogging South Carolina.

Texas Tech, the highest-rated team in the league, dropped from 12 to 16 after needing a fourth quarter comeback to beat Oregon State. The Red Raiders have gone from 10th to 16th in two weeks. In other words, Tech has not been nearly as dominant as the models expected coming into the season.

Texas Tech - 16
BYU - 18
Utah - 19
Kansas State - 30
Houston - 33
Cincinnati - 34
Baylor - 35
TCU - 41
Arizona - 43
Arizona State - 47
UCF - 48
Colorado - 50
Oklahoma State - 54
West Virginia - 61
Kansas - 62
Iowa State - 64

Conference Title Hopes

BYU's conference title odds increased for two reasons: the Cougars beat Arizona and Texas Tech struggled against Oregon State. Tech had more than a 40% chance to win the league before the season. That has dropped to 24.6% per FPI. Utah has also seen its conference title hopes materially improve after two weeks.

The Red Raiders are narrow favorites to win the league now instead of the heavy favorites they were in the preseason.

Texas Tech - 24.6%
BYU - 23.9%
Utah - 18.5%
Kansas State - 9.3%
Houston - 4.4%
Baylor - 4.1%
Cincinnati - 4.1%
TCU - 2.3%
UCF - 2.1%
ASU - 1.6%
Colorado - 1.4%
Arizona - 1.1%
Oklahoma State - 1.1%
Iowa State - 0.5%
West Virginia - 0.5%
Kansas - 0.4%

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU's College Football Playoff odds improved as well, driven by their increased odds to win the league. Remember, the winner of the Big 12 this season will receive an automatic invitation to the 12-team playoff.

The Red Raiders have seen their playoff chances go from 57.4% to 35.5% in two weeks.

Texas Tech - 35.5%
BYU - 33.1%
Utah - 18.5%
Kansas State - 9.3%
Houston - 4.4%
Baylor - 4.1%
Cincinnati - 4.1%
TCU - 2.3%
UCF - 2.1%
ASU - 1.6%
Colorado - 1.4%
Arizona - 1.1%
Oklahoma State - 1.1%
Iowa State - 0.5%
West Virginia - 0.5%
Kansas - 0.4%

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