What are the Chances that BYU Can Move Up the CFP Rankings This Week?

On Tuesday night, BYU came in at no. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Fortunately for the Cougars, they control their own destiny. If BYU wins out, including the Big 12 championship, they will be in the playoff. Unfortunately for the Cougars, they do not have the wiggle room that other big brands in the sport seem to have.

If BYU is going to move up in the College Football Playoff rankings this week, the Cougars need some November chaos to shake up the rankings. It might not take much - BYU would need to move up just one spot to be in the 12-team playoff. Still, the teams ranked just ahead of BYU are all favored to win this weekend.

So what are the chances that BYU could move up in the College Football Playoff rankings? Let's break it down.

First and foremost, BYU needs to beat Cincinnati. That is by far the most important result of the weekend. A loss to Cincinnati would not only spoil BYU's at-large hopes, it could also spoil BYU's Big 12 title game hopes. All of this will go away if BYU doesn't take care of business.

There are four teams ranked ahead of BYU that, if they lose, could drop below the Cougars in the rankings:

No. 7 Oregon vs no. 15 USC
No. 8 Oklahoma vs no. 22 Missouri
No. 9 Notre Dame vs Syracuse
No. 10 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois

Oregon has a 72% chance to beat USC and Oklahoma has a 64% chance to beat Missouri. Notre Dame and Alabama are, unsurprisingly, heavy favorites this weekend. So what are the chances that all four of the teams ranked ahead of BYU win on Saturday? Using FPI game probabilities, there is a 55.3% chance that one of those teams will lose.

Where things could get complicated is if USC beats Oregon. It's not a guarantee that Oregon would fall below BYU in the rankings, and the Trojans would become a threat to leapfrog the Cougars. Still, it is probably in BYU's best interest for USC to beat Oregon to at least give BYU a chance to move up that one critical spot.

The most important game of the weekend for BYU? Oklahoma-Missouri. That is the most likely upset per FPI. A third Oklahoma loss would knock the Sooners below BYU, almost certainly.

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