What Does Success Look Like for BYU Against Sam Houston?
The Big 12 era begins Saturday, and if you are like me, you have been consuming every piece of BYU content possible. We at Cougs Daily thank you for being with us as we celebrate the commencement of another season of BYU football. Week one is a time for overreactions. I am making the bold choice to make my overreactions before the game even starts.
As we all know, success starts with a win on Saturday, but in my opinion, it doesn’t end there. Here are the things I would like to see before I can proclaim that BYU will shock the world in their inaugural Big 12 season.
BYU Scores 40 Points or More
For as good as BYU's offense has been, they have had problems scoring more than 40+ points. Despite ranking second nationally in yards per play over the last three seasons, BYU has scored more than 40 points just three times in their last 27 games against FBS opponents.
There are plenty of contributing factors to this. In 2022, BYU ranked 114th in field goal percentage, 124th in 4th down conversions and 104th in red zone scoring, all of which tell a grim story of BYU once they reach the shadow of the goal line. We think BYU has addressed these issues. The Cougars top 3 running backs are all new faces and OC Aaron Roderick has made short yardage play design a point of emphasis this offseason. Saturday will be the first real opportunity for the offense to prove us right.
Credit: BYU Photo
First year FBS program or not, this defense is just good enough to provide a litmus test of how good BYU's offense can be. The Bearkats were 13th in the FCS in points allowed in 2022 and return the seventh most defensive production in the country according ESPN's Bill Connelly. Connelly also projects SHSU will have the 72nd-rated defense in college football this season, not far behind future opponents Texas Tech (66th), Oklahoma State (58th) and Arkansas (59th).
The BYU offense won’t necessarily need to score 40+ to win, but it will go a long way in showing that the offense can keep up with the high-powered offenses they will face later this season.
Multiple Sacks
I’m setting the bar low here, because however bad you thought BYU’s pass rush was last season, it was worse. In 2022, BYU had 8 games with 1 sack or less. They had more than 2 only twice. They had 0 sacks in the month of October and 0 sacks against FCS foe Utah Tech. Success looks like a pass rush. Any pass rush, especially against this Sam Houston offensive line.
SHSU was 109th at the FCS level in pass blocking according to PFF and allowed QB hurries on around 25% of drop backs in 2022. Couple that with a new defensive staff who preached aggression all offseason, I expect to see progress in week one. Not perfection, just progress. If BYU can’t get to the quarterback against this offensive line, it might mean that Cougar pass rush hasn’t made the progress we hoped for.
Credit: BYU Photo
No 10+ Play Drives Allowed
This one might be a little ambitious, but Sam Houston's offense was among the worst in the country in 2022, scoring just over 19 points per game. They also don’t have a clear-cut starter at QB and are breaking in a new offensive coordinator. This is a game that BYU’s defense should dominate. What does dominance look like on Saturday? Getting off the field.
BYU ranked 118th nationally in third down defense and roughly 25% of their total defensive drives lasted 10 plays or more. There will likely be of defensive miscues, but BYU cannot call Saturday night a success if this Sam Houston offense is able to lean on the Cougars for long sustained drives.
Prediction
I think it wise to temper our expectations. I expect BYU to win, but I expect it to look like week one. BYU is 6-1 in the Kalani Sitake era in week one games, but have only exceeded 30 points scored twice in seven tries. It will take time for all of these new faces to gel, particularly on offense with six transfers projected to start. BYU's offense starts slow but starts to click as the game rolls on. BYU's defense shows flashes, but allows a few big plays that allow Sam Houston to hang around in the first half. Ultimately, BYU pulls away in the fourth quarter, but I think the prettiest thing on the field is going to be the new Big 12 logo.
BYU 35 – 17 SHSU
