What the Advanced Analytics Say About BYU's Chances to Beat UCF in Regular Season Finale

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier against Cincinnati | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game. If the Cougars beat UCF, they will be in the Big 12 title game regardless of the other results around the conference. The Cougars, who came in at no. 11 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, are coming off a gritty road win over Cincinnati.

BYU is favored by 17.5 points heading into this game. Some advanced analytics models are more bullish on BYU's chances than others.

BCFToys (FEI)

BCFToys gives BYU a 94.9% chance to beat UCF with a projected final score of 33-11 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 15th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 17 nationally and an offensive ranking of 21st nationally.

UCF ranks ranks 67th nationally with an offensive ranking of 100th and a defensive rating of 40th.

On paper, the BYU defense against the UCF offense is the biggest mismatch in this game.

SP+

SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-UCF.

SP+ gives BYU an 88% chance to win with an expected final score of 34-15. BYU ranks 16th in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 19th and 25th nationally, respectively. The BYU offense had been climbing the ranks before the Texas Tech game - the BYU offense dropped from 25th nationally to 39th after struggling against the Red Raiders. However, the Cougars have climbed back up to no. 23 after two consecutive wins.

UCF ranks 67th in SP+. The Knights are ranked 94th on offense, 41st on defense, and 84th on special teams.

FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU's chances. FPI gives BYU a 93.6% chance to win.

CFB Graphs

CFB Graphs gives BYU an 82.2% chance to beat UCF with a projected final score of 31-10.

BYU should be able to run the football well against UCF. The Cougars rank 5th in EPA per rush on offense and the Knights rank 110th in EPA allowed per rush. The Knights are more equipped to defend against the pass where they rank 49th in EPA allowed per dropback.

UCF is one of the worst offenses in the country in terms of sustaining successful drives. The Knights rank 108th in qualty drive rate and 129th in points per quality drive. It would be surprising if UCF scored more than 14 points on the BYU defense.