What the Analytics are Saying About BYU's Chances against Stanford

On Saturday night, BYU will play its last regular season game as an independent against Stanford. Following a win over Utah Tech, BYU is looking to finish the 2022 season on a three-game winning streak. Stanford comes into this game with a 3-8 record and riding a four-game losing streak. One of Stanford's wins, however, was over Notre Dame.

Today, we look at what some of the analytics are saying about BYU's chances to beat Stanford on the road.

SP+

SP+, a predictive model managed by ESPN's Bill Connelly, expects a close game between BYU and Stanford. SP+ gives BYU a 51% chance to win with an expected final score of 33-33.

ESPN FPI

FPI is slightly more optimistic about BYU's chances against Stanford. FPI gives BYU a 53% chance to win on Saturday night.

Odds and Betting Line

As of this writing, BYU is a six-point favorite over Stanford and the money line is at BYU -240. At -240, the implied probability of a BYU win is 70.5%.

CFB Graphs

Parker from CFB Graphs does an excellent job covering college football from an analytical perspective. His model gives BYU a 72% chance to win with an expected final score of 31-23.

BYU @ STANFORD pic.twitter.com/4IyHOV3YiO
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 22, 2022

BYU's defensive struggles have been well documented this season. When BYU's defense takes on Stanford's offense, the Cougars will have a chance to get stops against Stanford if they can stop the run. Stanford has not had a lot of success this season through the air, even though they have the talent at quarterback and wide receiver to do it.

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