What the Predictive Models Say About BYU's Road Matchup Against UCF

All the advanced models like BYU against UCF, but they disagree on margin

Raider Damuni against UCF | BYU Photo

It's another college football Saturday and BYU will look to avoid a letdown against UCF. A win in this game would take BYU to 7-0 for the third time in as many seasons. It's also a very meaningful game for BYU's postseason hopes. The advanced models like BYU in this matchup, although they disagree on margin. Even though BYU is 29-4 over the last three seasons, the advanced models are still trying to figure out BYU.

SP+

We will start with SP+, since SP+ has been the most correct about BYU this season. SP+ was the only advanced model that gave BYU better than a 25% chance to beat Notre Dame. SP+ gives BYU an 81% chance to win with an expected final score of 32-17.

BYU is ranked 9th overall in SP+ rankings, headlined by a top 10 defense. The Cougars 9th on defense and 17th on offense per SP+. UCF, meanwhile, is ranked 57th in SP+, including 81st on offense and 40th on defense.

The mismatch in this game will be BYU's defense against the UCF offense. As long as UCF isn't set up with short fields, they will sruggle to put up points in this game.

FPI

ESPN FPI only favors BYU by 7-8 points. FPI gives BYU a 71% chance to beat the Knights. Here at BYU On SI, we pride ourselves in our ability to create, interpret, and communicate analytics at a high level. Even for us, FPI has been hard to understand this season. Going into the Notre Dame game, the Fighting Irish were ranked 1st in FPI. Even though BYU beat the top-ranked team in FPI, the Cougars didn't move up the FPI rankings.

The Cougars are ranked 14th in FPI. UCF is ranked 51st overall.

FEI

FEI gives BYU an 82.2% chance to beat UCF and the projected score is 30-14. BYU is ranked 10th overall in FEI. The offense and defense are ranked 14th and 15th, respectively.

UCF is ranked 55th overall and is headlined by its defense which ranks 31st nationally. The Knights offense has struggled and FEI reflects that. They are ranked 81st in offensive efficiency.

CFB Graphs

CFB graphs wasn't optimistic about BYU's chances against Notre Dame and it's less optimistic than SP+ and FEI. CFB Graphs gives BYU a 74% chance to win with an expected final score of 29-18.

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